#加密市场季度观察

In the first quarter of 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced severe fluctuations and structural changes. After Bitcoin broke through $100,000 at the end of 2024, it fell back to $82,000 by the end of March, dropping below the 200-day moving average. The total market capitalization shrank from $1.6 trillion to $950 billion, indicating the arrival of a correction period. At the same time, the Trump administration in the United States promoted friendly regulatory policies, repealed the SAB 121 Act, and allowed banks to directly engage in cryptocurrency businesses, boosting institutional confidence. The strategic Bitcoin reserve plan further injected long-term optimistic expectations into the market.

Institutional participation continued to increase, with Bitcoin ETF assets nearing those of gold ETFs. Venture capital is expected to exceed $18 billion for the year, focusing on the integration of AI and blockchain. The stablecoin market is expanding, and RWA tokenization is growing rapidly, projected to reach $30 trillion by 2030. However, individual trading volume sharply decreased by 60-70%, with market dynamics shifting towards macroeconomics, and intensified global trade policies and geopolitical risks increasing volatility. There is a clear differentiation within the ecosystem, with platforms like Uniswap and Ethereum seeing increased activity, while some altcoins are performing poorly.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, favorable regulations and institutional funds may drive the market to recover, but short-term adjustment risks still exist. Investors should closely monitor policy trends and new technological developments while cautiously responding to market uncertainties.