There were no updates the day before yesterday and yesterday, mainly because I was preparing for the internal testing of the Discord information aggregation platform. I need to write a user guide and a beginner's guide for newcomers in the crypto space, not only to provide useful information but also to teach newcomers how to use it. Simply copying others' work is not advisable; their information can only serve as a reference.

Another reason for the lack of updates is that the market has mainly been consolidating. The Dove and other big players have not updated for several days, so I don't have much to say.

Today's brief update:

1. vivian

She believes: as long as the daily close is above 83760, the market will oscillate between 84-86k, with no significant upward movement.

If the daily close is below 84.3k, then the rebound will be an entry point for shorting, with the target being the liquidity sweep at 83k.

Currently holding a short position on a wave, and waiting for the opportunity to short Bitcoin. She will notify everyone when she decides to short Bitcoin.

2. Wave Theory Liu Yudong:

The three major stock indices have not formed a bullish wave since the Black Monday on April 7. We should view this rise as a rebound; unless we consume 70% of the drop, we cannot close off future possibilities of breaking new lows. It is crucial to understand the nature of the rise.

April 18, 2025 Daily Chart

The closing price finally exceeded the downward trend line, but the trading volume is low. I am cautiously bullish, and we need to break 86668 to confirm that the rebound has started; anything before the breakout is just a hypothesis. Today's observation point is at the green dashed line 79872.

The rise of 74508 can only continue to rebound after a good pullback; without a pullback, it won't rise much.

Summary

The Dove said in the last update that he still believes we are in a bear market and is watching the consolidation. Joshua mentioned in his last update that he believes BTC will drop to 80-82K. Vivian plans to short BTC tonight and believes it won't rise before the 22nd.

Liu Yudong believes that the US stock market has a high probability of falling again to new lows, and he is also bearish on BTC.

Currently, Ao Ying is shorting BTC (at 6 PM Beijing time), but Ao Ying has recently lost five or six consecutive trades while chasing breakthroughs.

Most other traders have not updated, or they are bearish, though there are some bullish predictions up to 88K, but very few are bullish.

Currently, market activity is very low, BTC is consolidating at resistance, and most other altcoins are trending down, with not many good long opportunities. It is uncertain whether BTC can successfully break above the resistance, but it is clear that now is not a suitable time to go long, as it is easy to hit stop losses and the risk-reward ratio is poor. One could look for high short opportunities in ETH.

Let’s observe a bit more. If BTC drops, the risk of going long at 80K and below is very low, as the downside for BTC is limited.

Recently, some altcoins have been performing well, such as SOL and its little brother TAO, so one can try short-term trading with altcoins, but it is quite challenging. Newcomers should still stick to BTC, and doing spot trading in waves is also a viable option. Avoid chasing new coins either long or short; the risks are extremely high and the difficulties are great.

In the past, we aimed for six updates a week, but now it seems unnecessary. On days without active markets, it is better to spend time and energy writing other things, such as a beginner's manual, technical indicator usage tips, etc., and also developing automation tools.

(What I've written is very basic, and I've only written a small part, totaling 4500 words. Each image is created by me as I go, and I expect to finish by Saturday.)

The financial market is like a battlefield. In modern warfare, if you go into battle with a wooden stick against tanks and drones, the outcome is obvious. To survive and win, one must learn skills, summarize experiences, and seek tools.

Once I finish writing, it will serve as internal teaching material for the community and will also be publicly available for free. Our tools will also have ways for everyone to use for free. Welcome to join our fast-track community (no entry requirements) to exchange, learn, and help each other.