One, Rapid News from the Cryptocurrency Market
1. Altcoin Market
The market cap of altcoins continues to decline and is about to retest this downtrend line. If you want to buy altcoins, you will need to wait a few more days.
2. Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrency
The total market cap of cryptocurrency has repeatedly retested the EMA144, showing overall strength.
3. Liquidation Heat Map
From the liquidation heat map, it is highly likely that there will be a drop to liquidate long positions next.
4. Fear and Greed Index
The Fear and Greed index is at 53, which is not yet at greed.
Two, Rapid News from the Cryptocurrency Space
1. Michael Saylor has once again called on Microsoft to abandon bonds and purchase Bitcoin to avoid capital losses.
Michael Saylor, Chairman of the Board of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), called on Microsoft to adjust its capital allocation strategy at the 'Strategy World 2025' summit. He suggested that Microsoft should stop investing in low-yield bonds and stock buybacks, and instead make Bitcoin a core option for corporate asset allocation.
2. BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF has surpassed the global largest gold fund in terms of fund inflows this year.
According to CoinDesk, despite Bitcoin's annual increase of 3.8% lagging behind gold's 29% surge, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) still ranks sixth in net inflows among US ETFs with $6.96 billion, surpassing the world's largest gold ETF (GLD) at $6.5 billion. This phenomenon shows that institutional investors remain optimistic about the long-term value of cryptocurrencies.
3. A certain ancient whale has recharged the exchange with 2,700 ETH again, and has reportedly sold 18,700 ETH in the past week.
According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa's monitoring, 'The whale that accumulated 76,000 ETH during the 2015 ICO' recharged the exchange with 2,700 ETH, worth $4.96 million, just 25 minutes ago. Over the past week, this ancient whale has reportedly sold 18,700 ETH, totaling about $34.11 million, with an average recharge price of $1,824.
4. Nasdaq-listed company Thumzup plans to raise its fundraising cap from $200 million to $500 million to purchase Bitcoin.
The Nasdaq-listed Thumzup Media Corporation (NASDAQ: TZUP) announced that it has increased its financing registration limit from $200 million to $500 million to prepare for raising more funds in the next three years through the issuance of stocks, bonds, etc. The company currently holds 19.106 Bitcoin (about $1.8 million) and plans to use up to 90% of its liquid assets for Bitcoin investment, further strengthening its digital asset strategy.
5. A whale bought 5,473 ETH and currently has a total holding with a floating loss of about $4.74 million.
According to Yu Jin's tracking, a certain whale bought 5,473.7 ETH at a price of $1,802 three hours ago, costing about $9.862 million. Previously, the address bought 3,634 ETH at $3,208 in January, accumulating a total holding of 9,109.6 ETH (worth about $16.8 million), with an average purchase price of $2,363, currently facing a floating loss of about $4.74 million, with a decline of 22%.
Three, Rapid News on Large Orders
1. BTC Spot Orders
The purple line in the above chart represents sell orders, and the green line represents buy orders. As seen from the chart, there are a large number of sell orders between 98K-100K, requiring a massive amount of buy orders to break through upwards.
2. ETH Spot Orders
There are a large number of sell orders around 1900 for ETH, with some buy orders around 1800 and 1770.
Four, Rapid News from Cryptocurrency Bloggers
1. Top Trader Dove
Dove updated on May 3: The results of the above vote are very interesting — I think overall, it can indeed be said that you outperform the stock market in risk-adjusted returns, provided that Bitcoin occupies a significant proportion of your investment portfolio.
From various indicators (ETH / SOL / TOTAL3), we have not achieved a compound growth rate above the S&P 500 (SPX) level. This contrasts sharply with the cycle from 2019 to 2022, when the relative performance was indeed extraordinarily good.
This is not surprising, but the more worth discussing question is: what will the next cycle look like? In my view, apart from Bitcoin, it will be difficult for us to return to an era where crypto assets outperform in risk-adjusted terms. Even Bitcoin may find it hard to escape this question. As crypto assets mature as an asset class, more and more people are becoming familiar with and allocating cryptocurrencies, the possibility of 'achieving financial freedom through crypto' may become a thing of the past.
Now we are talking about the percentage returns of this cycle, while in the previous cycle, we discussed the multiple returns of the portfolio. I believe that if you choose to invest only in cryptocurrencies without holding Bitcoin (or leveraged Bitcoin), regardless of how small the proportion is, it is a mistake. The possible future situation is that going long with 2x BTC returns will exceed your long position in any Beta asset (like ETH or SOL) with 1x funds, even in a phase of rising risk appetite.
(Dove believes that times have changed, and not allocating BTC when investing in the cryptocurrency space is a mistake. The returns from going long 2x BTC will exceed the gains of any mainstream altcoin.)
2. Trader Vivian
Vivian updated this morning:
Plans have changed — we originally planned to go long tomorrow (tonight in Beijing time) from 92222 to 97777 and then short.
Unfortunately, war has broken out, and we have already hit 97777.
But now we need to clarify: there are two strong rallies before a major short.
The reason is: we closed firmly above 94.9K on the daily chart, indicating local resilience.
This means that there will likely be a retest of 94.9K before the end of the FOMC meeting.
Then it surged to 97K when the FOMC was announced, and then there was a major short.
We originally built a long position in T2 (Channel Name) in batches, but now the situation has changed, and we have closed the position.
This does not change the long-term direction: from the perspective of spot investors, we are still heading from 90K to 108K.
But in the short term, the current trend is slightly bearish, which may heavily impact altcoins.
So our plan is as follows:
1. There is currently a short position held, and I will short at 94.9K tomorrow;
2. After closing the short position, leave space for a rebound during FOMC, and then re-enter at a higher point;
3. T1 (Channel Name) currently holds long positions in ETH spot — according to the current situation, it will touch 1555;
o If you can accept it and add to your position later, let it fly to 2777, you can continue to hold;
o If not, close positions during tomorrow's FOMC, and wait to re-enter at lower levels;
4. T1's short position can continue to be held;
5. T2 is a 3x leveraged long position in XRP; we expect XRP to drop below 2.
o If you can accept it, continue to hold;
o If not, take profits and stop losses during the FOMC;
6. T1 will open a BTC short position around 3 PM tomorrow;
7. T2 will also open a large short position around 3 PM tomorrow.
(Vivian believes that after the Federal Reserve monetary meeting, the market will decline. She plans to short at a high point and then re-enter spot positions or long positions.)
3. Top Trader Joshua
He updated the day before yesterday:
If you want to update the list of altcoins to focus on, the order can be adjusted as follows — those at the front are the ones I am currently most focused on:
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🔹 First Priority: TURBO, AVAAI, VIRTUAL (AI related)
• TURBO: The chart structure is good and has been listed on the Revolut exchange. The starting point of the upward wave happens to be on its second anniversary, and it indeed looks like spot buying has entered around that time.
• AVAAI: This is the only token among the AI agent projects recently invested by a16z that matches the narrative of visual agents. It has currently broken through a three-month consolidation range.
• VIRTUAL: Since the launch of the new Virtual Holding Point model, it has shown a clear upward trend, and we are currently conducting research related to the Virtual ecosystem.
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🔹 Second Priority: PENGU, FART, POPCAT (purely meme types)
• PENGU: A meme coin belonging to the abstract concept series, with a slight overlap in narrative with AVAAI. Compared to 'old memes' like FART and POPCAT, PENGU has a greater appeal to retail investors since it has been listed on Robinhood and its price has never really gone up, providing sufficient motivation to drive a wave of market movement.
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🔹 Third Priority: SUI
The reason is also written: no matter what, as long as the market is in an upward oscillation, they are the targets I am focusing on.
Updated this afternoon: I will add KAITO to the watchlist.
(The above is the list of altcoins recommended by Joshua; everyone can take a look.)
4. Top Trader Altcoin Sherpa
He updated this morning:
I really want to see us strongly test $BTC at $100,000. I won't open any new long positions here but will continue to keep an eye on it. If we break through that high point strongly, I will be happy. $BTC looks exceptionally strong, and it seems that not many people are holding positions. It needs to go higher.
Regarding altcoins: Fartcoin is currently still at support levels, and may fall back to below the $1 area, but I still believe it will rise after that.
(Sherpa believes BTC is still very strong, but he will not open any new long positions now; he still plans to buy Fartcoin at low levels.)
5. Wave Theory by Liu Yudong
May 7, 2025 Daily Chart
99064 is very important; breaking through it will allow us to avoid dropping below 74508 in the future. After finding the adjustment endpoint, it may surge past 109588 to around 125000. The 95852 I gave yesterday has already surged past, and I believe it is strengthening, with an increased probability of breaking the previous high of 97895 to 99064.
(Liu Yudong has been mentioning 99064 for nearly 10 days. If it doesn't rise to this level, it may drop down, and there is still a possibility of falling below 74508. Currently, it seems that breaking through the resistance at 98K will reach 99K; it's just a step away.)
Five, Summary
First, I apologize for keeping everyone waiting. We took a week off for the holiday, and all work was paused. We are resuming updates today.
In the last update, I anticipated a significant drop during the month-end, but the lowest it fell was just above 92,900. BTC has been continuously strong for a month now, during which some popular altcoins have performed remarkably, but mainstream altcoins have shown average performance. Large position longs should still be in BTC, and light positions in popular altcoins for small gains, while holding onto ETH for shorting is more appropriate.
BTC will inevitably pull back in the coming days, at least it will retest 90K. Friends who missed the opportunity should not be anxious; just wait patiently, and at that time, you can buy more BTC or layout altcoin spot positions based on Vivian and Joshua's lists.
Statement:
The above information is for reference only and is not trading advice. The cryptocurrency space is high risk, and participation should be cautious.
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