Based on current market analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating around $85,000 for several days, and there are various possibilities regarding whether a correction will occur. It cannot be simply concluded that a correction will definitely happen, as detailed analysis follows:
Technical Analysis
• Short-term Indicators: As of April 14, 2025, technical analysis shows that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35, near the 'oversold' area, which may indicate a price rebound in the near term. However, the MACD indicator shows a negative crossover between the signal line and the MACD line, supporting continued downward momentum in the short term.
• Support and Resistance: The current first support level for Bitcoin is at $83,000, and the second support level is at $80,500; the first resistance level is at $86,000, and the second resistance level is at $89,000. If the price cannot effectively break through the resistance at $86,000, it may continue to fluctuate within the current range or even correct.
Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
• Market Sentiment: Market sentiment has a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices. Recently, due to the impact of news such as tariff policies from the Trump administration, market sentiment has been highly volatile, leading to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. If market sentiment continues to be unstable, Bitcoin prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels or even experience a correction.
• Capital Flow: Despite increased volatility in the derivatives market, institutional support for Bitcoin continues. For example, on March 20, 2025, the total net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $165.75 million. This influx of capital may support Bitcoin prices to some extent, reducing the likelihood of a correction.
Historical Trends and Market Structure
• Historical Trends: From a historical perspective, Bitcoin often experiences corrections or consolidations after reaching certain highs. For example, in November 2024, Bitcoin also experienced a similar situation, where the price fluctuated around $90,000 before correcting.
• Market Structure: Currently, the overall market structure for Bitcoin remains in a bullish trend, but short-term upward momentum has weakened. If the market structure changes, such as the emergence of a clear head-and-shoulders pattern or trend reversal signals, the likelihood of a correction will significantly increase.
Macroeconomic and Policy Factors
• Macroeconomics: The global economic situation and market confidence also have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. If the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further and market confidence wanes, Bitcoin prices may be negatively affected and experience a correction.
• Policy Factors: Changes in regulatory policies in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. If regulatory policies tighten further in the future, it may lead to a substantial decline in Bitcoin prices.
In summary, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $85,000 for several days. Although there is a possibility of a correction, it is not certain that a correction will occur. Investors need to closely monitor changes in technical indicators, market sentiment, capital flows, macroeconomics, and policies to make more accurate judgments.