#Bitcoin


Technical Analysis

  • Moving Averages: On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average is slightly below the current price at around $82,000, acting as potential support, while the 200-day moving average, rising steadily, sits near $80,000, reinforcing a long-term bullish trend. However, the 4-hour chart shows a neutral stance, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages converging, suggesting indecision.

  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI on the daily timeframe is at 52, indicating neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold. This suggests Bitcoin could move in either direction without immediate pressure from momentum extremes.

  • Support and Resistance Levels: Key support lies at $82,922 (recent low) and $80,000 (psychological and technical level). Resistance is at $86,508 (recent high) and $89,081 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement from January’s all-time high of $109,464.94). A break above $86,508 could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below $82,922 might test lower supports.

  • MACD Indicator: The MACD on the daily chart shows a slight bearish bias, with the histogram narrowing, but it remains above the signal line, indicating no strong directional shift yet.

Fundamental Factors

  • Powell’s Speech Impact: Powell’s cautious tone on tariffs and inflation has spooked traditional markets. However, Bitcoin’s stability suggests investors may view it as a hedge against economic uncertainty, similar to its role during the 2020 pandemic rally. However, sustained equity market declines could reduce risk appetite, impacting BTC.

  • Institutional Adoption: Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows, with projections estimating they’ll hold 7% of BTC’s circulating supply by year-end. This institutional buying provides a bullish undercurrent, though short-term volatility persists.

  • Market Sentiment: If Bitcoin holds above $84,000, some traders are eyeing a breakout to $88,000, while others anticipate a dip to $80,000–$82,000 to clear sell-side liquidity before a rally. The absence of a clear catalyst (e.g., rate cuts or regulatory clarity) keeps the market range-bound.


    Key Levels to Watch

    • Upside Targets: $86,508 (immediate resistance), $89,081 (Fibonacci level), $95,000 (psychological level).

    • Downside Risks: $82,922 (immediate support), $80,000 (major support), $78,400 (secondary support).