Author: Bitcoin Hunter
The U.S. financial market in 2025 is staging an epic game comparable to 'Game of Thrones'—a power duel between Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell. The core of this game is not only the struggle for the survival of monetary policy independence but also directly determines the direction of global liquidity tides. As an old player in the cryptocurrency sphere, Bitcoin Hunter guides us through the political smoke to grasp the essence: the June interest rate cut has become a foregone conclusion, and the cryptocurrency market will emerge as the biggest winner!
1. Trump's 'Interest Rate Cut Obsession': Dual Drives of Political Survival and Market Manipulation
Trump's fervor for interest rate cuts has long surpassed economic logic, becoming the core strategy for the continuation of his political life.
1. The Political Cost of the Trade War: The current 145% tariffs on China, and additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada imposed by the Trump administration, essentially serve as populist tools to shift domestic conflicts. However, high tariffs directly raise import costs, leading to a rebound in CPI (March core CPI year-on-year at 2.8%). If combined with the Federal Reserve maintaining high rates, American consumers will face a dual blow of 'rising prices + climbing borrowing costs', directly threatening Trump's 2028 re-election plan.
2. The Demand for Stock Market Stability: After the 'Seven Sisters' bubble in 2024, the U.S. stock market has entered a deep adjustment period in 2025 (with significant declines in Nasdaq). Trump understands the law that 'the stock market is a ballot', and interest rate cuts are the only quick remedy to stimulate risk assets in the short term.
3. The Narrative Construction of 'Shifting Blame to the Federal Reserve': Trump attributes economic weakness to Powell's 'slowness', shaping the public opinion that 'the Federal Reserve hinders America's revival', paving the way for his dismissal of Powell while shifting public attention away from the backlash of tariff policies.
2. Powell's Predicament: The Countdown to Compromise Behind the Mask of Independence
Powell's tough statements (such as 'we will not cut interest rates due to political pressure') are merely superficial; real pressures have forced his policy balance to tilt.
The Ghost of Stagflation Approaches: The estimated GDP growth rate for the U.S. in Q1 is -0.1%, while core inflation has rebounded to 2.6%. The combination of 'slowing growth + stubborn inflation' puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. However, Powell has recently hinted that 'he will weigh the conflict of dual missions', suggesting a policy shift.
The Deadly Threat of Legal Warfare: Trump is challenging the Humphrey-Hawkins Act through the Supreme Court; if he successfully overturns this precedent, the president will gain the power to fire the Federal Reserve Chair. On April 9, the Supreme Court temporarily supported Trump's dismissal of other independent agency officials, opening a legal loophole for 'Powell's Dismissal'.
The Reflexivity of Market Expectations: Current interest rate futures show that the probability of a June rate cut has risen to 65%. This expectation itself will become a 'self-fulfilling prophecy'—if the Federal Reserve insists on not cutting rates, it may trigger a stock market crash, thereby forcing Powell to compromise.
3. The Inevitability of June Interest Rate Cuts: The Conspiracy of Three Forces
1. The 'Last Straw' of Economic Data: The Atlanta Fed predicts negative GDP growth in Q1, while the surge in imports due to tariffs (such as 1.4% retail growth in March supported by pre-purchased cars) is unsustainable. Q2 data will further reveal economic weakness, providing a 'data excuse' for interest rate cuts.
2. The Endgame of Political Suppression: Trump's team has begun contacting potential successors (such as former Governor Walsh). If Powell insists on not cutting interest rates, Trump may forcibly replace him through a Supreme Court ruling, and the new chair is bound to rapidly initiate easing.
3. The Coordinated Pressure from Global Central Banks: The European Central Bank has cut interest rates seven times (deposit rate to 2.25%). If the Federal Reserve maintains high rates, the excessive strength of the dollar will harm U.S. exports, forcing Powell to consider the side effects of a 'currency war'.
4. The Historic Opportunity in the Cryptocurrency Sphere: The Resonance of Liquidity Flood and Safe-Haven Demand
Once the June interest rate cut is implemented, it will trigger dual benefits.
1. The Reopening of the Liquidity Valve: Under the expectation of interest rate cuts, the dollar index has fallen from 105 to 100 (the Academy of Social Sciences predicts it will reach 100 within the year), and capital will flow into high-risk assets. Bitcoin, as 'digital gold' and an 'anti-inflation asset', will benefit from both easing expectations and stagflation anxiety.
2. The Hedge Against the Collapse of Federal Reserve Credibility: If Trump successfully intervenes in monetary policy, the credibility of the dollar will be damaged, and the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies will attract more institutional allocation. Just as the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE in 2020 gave rise to a cryptocurrency bull market, the politicized interest rate cuts in 2025 may recreate an epic market.