In the current complex financial environment, the prospect of Bitcoin hitting the $86,000 mark is full of uncertainties due to the actions of Powell and Trump.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's refusal to rescue the market has had a huge impact on the financial markets. After the announcement, U.S. stocks plummeted, and investors' risk aversion sentiment surged sharply. Although Bitcoin is seen as a "decentralized" and "safe-haven asset," its ties to the traditional financial markets are becoming increasingly close. When U.S. stocks decline, Bitcoin also finds it difficult to stand alone, adding significant resistance to its attempts to reach $86,000.
Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrency is similarly uncertain. He once stated that he wants to make the U.S. the "global cryptocurrency and Bitcoin capital," and even proposed the creation of a U.S. "strategic Bitcoin national reserve," which at one point boosted market confidence. However, the volatility of his tariff policies has severely affected the short-term performance of risk assets, causing market sentiment to become cautious, and investors' concerns about the macroeconomic environment have dampened enthusiasm for investing in risk assets like Bitcoin. Of course, there is still hope for Bitcoin's rise. From the perspective of capital flows, institutions show strong interest in Bitcoin, with Bitcoin ETFs and corporate Bitcoin reserves indicating new institutional demand. Some analysts expect institutional capital inflows to continue into 2025, which could become a driving force behind Bitcoin's price increase.
However, the reality is that the Bitcoin market currently faces challenges. After Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 key support level, it triggered a chain of stop-losses, with over $1 billion in cryptocurrency contract liquidations in the past week. Some exchanges suspended withdrawals due to liquidity pressure, and market panic spread, with many investors selling Bitcoin to hedge, significantly hindering the price recovery of Bitcoin.
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