24-hour Cryptocurrency Hotspots
Economic Data and Market Reactions
- In March, U.S. retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January 2023, with significant growth in auto sales due to panic buying by consumers responding to tariff threats. However, this data, along with last week's inflation data, had little impact on the market.
Powell's Speech and Its Impact
- Powell stated that U.S. inflationary pressures are more persistent due to structural factors such as tariffs and trade policies, and that curbing inflation is the top priority. He inversely guided market expectations for interest rate cuts and clearly indicated that the Federal Reserve may not intervene to stabilize the market during periods of volatility. As a result, U.S. stock markets and cryptocurrency markets declined, while gold prices hit new highs.
Bitcoin Market Situation
- Bitcoin has strong support in the $81,300 - $83,500 range, with $87,000 serving as the liquidation point. If support at $83,000 is breached, there could be a rapid liquidation. Bitcoin has a high correlation with the global M2 money supply, and the U.S. Treasury has injected about $500 billion in liquidity since February, with some flowing into risk asset markets, driving up Bitcoin prices. Additionally, publicly listed companies have a strong willingness to expand their Bitcoin reserves, with a 16% increase in holdings in the first quarter.
U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics
- The U.S. Treasury market has experienced massive sell-offs, leading to a sharp increase in yields. Last week, the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond surged by 50 basis points, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001. Funds have not flowed into the Treasury market and may have shifted to safe-haven assets like gold or temporarily exited the market.
U.S. Economic Policy and International Situation
- The U.S. government is facing the issue of a collapsing Treasury market and needs to enhance the attractiveness of Treasury bonds to reduce financing costs. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions, and China is believed to be reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, intensifying the sell-off pressure in the U.S. Treasury market. Trump announced that certain Chinese technology products would no longer be subject to super-high tariffs, but a comprehensive removal of tariffs is unlikely, as the U.S. government needs tariff support for domestic tax structure adjustments and spending plans.
