How should WCT operate now?
1. Long and short signal resonance verification
1. Confirmation of short advantages:
- Moving average suppression: MA7 (0.3933) and MA25 (0.4046) form a death cross, with prices continually constrained below the moving average band.
- MACD divergence: DIF (0.0013) crosses below DEA (0.0077) and the histogram expands to -0.0064, enhancing short momentum.
2. Potential long rebound points:
- Order book support: There are 72,000 dense buy orders (approximately $280,000) in the 0.3876-0.3884 range.
- Volume-price structure: The 4-hour candlestick has shown a contraction in volume three times in the 0.36-0.38 range, which may signal a continuation of the decline or a bottom formation.
2. Core operation strategies
Plan A: Breakout follow-up (win rate 65%)
- Short trigger point: Short directly at the current price of 0.3890, with additional position conditions:
1. 15-minute candlestick closing price falls below 0.3876 (support breakdown)
2. MACD histogram continues to expand above -0.008
- Profit-taking steps:
- First target 0.3780 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level)
- Second target 0.3620 (previous low + lower boundary of volatility channel)
- Stop-loss mechanism: Dynamic tracking above 0.3933 (MA7) at 1.5%, i.e., 0.4000.
Plan B: Reversal speculation (win rate 42% but profit-loss ratio 4:1)
- Long trigger point: When the 30-minute RSI (6) is below 35, gradually accumulate positions in the 0.3820-0.3850 range.
- Additional position conditions:
1. 4-hour trading volume exceeds $120 million.
2. MACD golden cross and DIF turns positive.
- Target space: 0.4060 (MA25 resistance level) + 0.4180 (chip vacuum area).
- Strict stop-loss: Immediately stop-loss if it falls below 0.3780 (3% range).
Current advice is to prioritize executing Plan A, suggesting to short at 0.3890 with an initial position of 3%, add 2% if it falls below 0.3876, targeting 0.3620. If the strategy succeeds, a theoretical profit of 6.9% can be obtained (34.5% return with 5x leverage).