In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly touted in public that his tariff policy could bring in '20 billion dollars a day for the U.S.'. However, data from U.S. Customs and the Treasury Department shows that even after some tariffs took effect on April 5, the actual customs revenue from tariffs was only around 200 to 300 million dollars, indicating a significant gap.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech last night:
1. Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve's policy is in a good position, waiting for clearer economic data before adjusting its stance.
2. The U.S. economy remains 'robust', but uncertainty and downside risks are increasing, with inflation slightly above the target level.
3. Employment is close to its highest level, the labor market is solid, wage growth is sustainable, but business and household confidence is declining.
4. Tariff and trade policies bring inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions may extend the duration of inflation, and uncertainty in government policies is increasing.
5. The market is highly volatile, reserves are ample, the Fed is gradually reducing its balance sheet, and attention is being paid to debt sustainability and dollar liquidity.
This statement reinforces the message that Powell has repeatedly emphasized, including the recent emphasis on April 4: Federal Reserve officials are not in a hurry to change the benchmark policy interest rate.
Powell warned that the Fed is stuck in a policy dilemma, stating that the current situation is 'extremely challenging', and the current policy focus will be on controlling inflation, with no rush to cut interest rates or intervene in market volatility.
Regarding the financial market, Powell said: 'The market is battling many uncertainties, which means volatility, but nevertheless, the market is still functioning.'
After Powell's speech, the U.S. stock market continued to decline, Bitcoin fell by over 2000 points, and Ethereum dropped by 80 points, but the market quickly rebounded and stabilized.
Gareth Ryan, Managing Director of IUR Capital, said: 'If there is no significant progress in trade negotiations with major U.S. trading partners within the next 90 days, the stock market could face a tough summer.'
Powell's remarks mean that the tariff situation has not yet been negotiated and finalized, and no one knows what changes will occur in the future. The market's decline is inevitable, and it is currently being gradually digested. The Fed will not cut interest rates to intervene in this matter; everything must wait until a definitive conclusion is reached before he can make a correct judgment and decision.
Today's focus:
At 20:15, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision;
At 20:30, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12, the annualized total of new housing starts in March, the total number of building permits in March, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for April;
At 20:45, ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference;
At 22:30, the U.S. will announce the EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending April 11;
At 23:45, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech;
Therefore, the cryptocurrency market in April is still in a state of volatility, in other words, it is in a range-bound oscillation mode. As for the extreme expectations of 'a bear market is coming' and 'rising to 90K' that everyone has been discussing in the past two days, Yumi is currently skeptical. It is expected to oscillate back and forth in the range of 80K-90K in April.
