#鲍威尔讲话 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the Chicago Economic Club, with the key points of his remarks:

1. Tariff Policy Impact: The uncertainty surrounding the potential impacts of the Trump administration's tariff policy is increasing, which may put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma between "controlling inflation" and "supporting economic growth." Tariffs are almost certain to lead to a temporary rise in inflation, and the effects of inflation may be more persistent.

2. Monetary Policy Stance: The Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to "wait for more clear signals" and does not need to adjust its policy stance immediately.

3. "Federal Reserve Put Option": Denied the notion of a "Federal Reserve put option," which suggests the Fed would intervene to support the market during significant downturns, stating that the market's expectation for the Fed to step in to calm volatility may be misguided, and market volatility may persist for some time.

4. Inflation and Employment Goals: If there is a conflict between inflation and employment targets, the Federal Reserve may prioritize controlling inflation. The labor market is solid and generally in balance, and there is currently no conflict between the dual policy goals of full employment and price stability. Forecast data shows that March PCE inflation rose by 2.3%, with the core inflation rate at 2.6%.

5. Stablecoins and Banking Regulation: There is a need for a stablecoin regulatory framework, which is expected to relax regulation on the banking sector regarding cryptocurrency issues.

6. Bank System Status: The capital status of the banking system is good and quite resilient; in my personal opinion, the U.S. should complete the implementation of the Basel III framework.

7. Federal Reserve Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is granted by U.S. law, and (the Trump administration) cannot arbitrarily dismiss Federal Reserve officials. The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling (catering to Trump’s layoffs) does not apply to the Federal Reserve.