In the early hours of Thursday, Powell stated in his speech: the level of tariffs has exceeded the Federal Reserve's upward expectations, and the market is digesting a historically rare event, with market volatility expected to continue; if a shortage of dollars occurs, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollars to global central banks. During Powell's remarks, US stock indices deepened their declines, with the Nasdaq down 3.5%, the S&P 500 index down 2.3%, and the Dow Jones index down 1.5%; gold rose to $3338 per ounce, up more than 3.3%. US Treasury Secretary Basant previously stated that they are considering successors to Federal Reserve head Powell, with interviews for candidates beginning in the fall.
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US Treasury Secretary Basant stated that they are considering successors to Federal Reserve head Powell, with interviews for candidates beginning in the fall. Reuters reported that a legal advocacy group on Monday requested the US International Trade Court to block Trump's comprehensive tariffs on foreign trading partners. Senior attorney Jeffrey Schwab stated: no one should have the power to impose taxes with such massive global economic consequences. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is delaying decisions on several proposals to allow ETFs to stake ETH and to change the rules for physical subscriptions and redemptions, originally scheduled for mid-April, has been postponed to early June this year. A Canadian asset management company launched four Solana spot ETFs on the Toronto Stock Exchange, marking the birth of North America's first Solana ETP with staking functionality. The US publicly listed company Semler Scientific applied to issue $500 million in securities for general corporate purposes, including but not limited to increasing BTC holdings. Standard Chartered analysts stated that due to expectations that the US will introduce formal regulations for the industry, the total supply of stablecoins may increase from the current approximately $230 billion to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, a level of growth that will stimulate demand for $1.6 trillion in US short-term Treasury bonds over the next four years.
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated that the bull market of 2020-2021 occurred in an unusual macro environment of near-zero interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing. Today, we are still in a phase of high interest rates and liquidity tightening, making the entire market more cautious. Inflows into ETFs are still ongoing, and the macro environment may gradually ease, with 2025 still expected to bring meaningful market trends. Matrixport stated that net inflows into BTC ETFs in 2025 will be just above zero, with total net inflows into ETFs amounting to $35.5 billion, of which BlackRock accounts for $39.6 billion, and Fidelity for $11.4 billion. BTC ETF inflows are concentrated in leading institutions, reflecting stronger institutional demand compared to widespread retail participation. Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Action Fund, stated that US cryptocurrency market structure legislation will drive BTC prices. Once this bill is signed into law, the floodgates for capital inflow will be completely opened, which is good news for BTC. On April 15, US BTC spot ETF inflows were $76.4 million, while ETH spot ETF outflows were $14.2 million. Gold prices first exceeded $3300 per ounce. Former US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the rationale for Trump's tariff measures is 'unclear and completely unreasonable.' If real financial stability issues arise, the Federal Reserve will consider using its liquidity tools, as it did in early 2020, but that time has not yet come.
Trump initiated an investigation into the necessity of imposing tariffs on critical mineral products, requesting a Section 232 investigation under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to assess the impact of importing these materials on US security and resilience. Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar stated: there are doubts about the credibility of American exceptionalism and the dollar as a reserve currency, tariffs may reduce the reliability of the US, and investors will seek other destinations. The era of a strong dollar has peaked, and the dollar may further weaken, which could benefit gold prices. In the early hours of Thursday, Powell stated in his speech: employment is currently close to the highest level, inflation is slightly above the 2% target, and inflation has significantly decreased; it has not yet reached the level to stop reducing the size of the balance sheet; tariffs far above expectations may mean inflation will rise and economic growth will slow; the impact of policies may cause the Federal Reserve to deviate from its expected targets; the level of tariffs has exceeded the Federal Reserve's upward expectations; the market is digesting a historically rare event, and due to high uncertainty, market volatility is expected to continue; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollars to global central banks.
Powell hardly mentioned the outlook for monetary policy, stating readiness to 'wait for more certainty on tariff policy.' US stock indices deepened their declines, with the Nasdaq index down 3.5%, the S&P 500 index down 2.3%, and the Dow Jones index down 1.5%; gold rose to $3338 per ounce, up more than 3.3%; BTC fell by 0.2%. Regarding cryptocurrencies, Powell stated: cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream, establishing a legal framework for stablecoins is a good idea, stablecoins may have broad appeal, and consumer protection measures should be established. It is expected that there will be 'partial easing' of banking regulations related to cryptocurrencies. The current market focus remains on Trump's erratic tariff measures, with market sentiment cautious and volatility easing compared to earlier periods. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 81.4%, with a 72.4% probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25-50 basis points by June. The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in the US is gradually easing, which is considered favorable; Trump's tariff measures are unfavorable and being digested. BTC performed better than US stock indices, while gold outperformed BTC. It will take time to emerge from this unfavorable shadow, and the Federal Reserve is also waiting for Trump's tariff measures to play out, with the market awaiting the next rate-cutting phase, hoping for a rate cut in June.
