蒋墨峰-否极泰来
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Bullish
Recently, after Bitcoin's bottom rebound, it was suppressed by the daily descending trend line. Although it briefly broke through, it eventually fell back, presenting a false breakout pattern.
Maintaining a bullish judgment, the operation should mainly focus on going long, especially emphasizing low long strategies. Although there is a possibility of price retracement, the key support level below provides effective cushioning, and short positions are not currently considered.
The previously formed phase high point, after breaking, experienced a downward retest and gained support rebound. Last night, the Bitcoin price broke through the previous high point, and the current price is approaching that support level again. If this position can provide effective support and trigger a rebound, Bitcoin is expected to complete the adjustment within the rectangular box, thereby continuing the bullish trend.
(II) Second expectation: Testing the key support below
The platform below is an important horizontal support level. This area has completed the role reversal of support and resistance, and the double bottom structure has broken through with volume, validating its effectiveness. If the price breaks below the current support, it will test this key support level downward. There is also a demand zone below this position, which has certain support strength but is relatively weak.
III. Operation suggestions
If you already hold long positions, it is recommended to set the defensive position around 82,500. If this position is effectively broken, you should consider exiting and observing to avoid further losses.
If the 82,500 position is lost, wait for a clearer stop-loss stabilization and rebound signal to appear at a lower position, and do not place orders in advance. Only after confirming a stop-loss rebound can you enter to go long.
From the perspective of the daily level's large cycle, the previous central segment's top is also a horizontal support level at the 4-hour level. The Bitcoin price has not effectively broken below this point after two consecutive retests, and subsequently gained support rebound. Thus, it is judged that the downtrend is likely to have ended, and it will enter a rebound upward phase.
Although there is currently no clear reversal signal in the large cycle, signs of stop-loss have emerged, and rebound signals have appeared at the hourly level. If Bitcoin can effectively break through the current upward trend line, and the mid-term target price of 89,000 is also breached, it will further confirm the reversal trend.
From a medium to long-term perspective, Bitcoin is expected to test the key price level near 110,000, which is the second probe of the weekly top. If it can successfully break through and stabilize after a pullback, the bullish trend will be further strengthened.
Maintaining a bullish judgment, the operation should mainly focus on going long, especially emphasizing low long strategies. Although there is a possibility of price retracement, the key support level below provides effective cushioning, and short positions are not currently considered.
The previously formed phase high point, after breaking, experienced a downward retest and gained support rebound. Last night, the Bitcoin price broke through the previous high point, and the current price is approaching that support level again. If this position can provide effective support and trigger a rebound, Bitcoin is expected to complete the adjustment within the rectangular box, thereby continuing the bullish trend.
(II) Second expectation: Testing the key support below
The platform below is an important horizontal support level. This area has completed the role reversal of support and resistance, and the double bottom structure has broken through with volume, validating its effectiveness. If the price breaks below the current support, it will test this key support level downward. There is also a demand zone below this position, which has certain support strength but is relatively weak.
III. Operation suggestions
If you already hold long positions, it is recommended to set the defensive position around 82,500. If this position is effectively broken, you should consider exiting and observing to avoid further losses.
If the 82,500 position is lost, wait for a clearer stop-loss stabilization and rebound signal to appear at a lower position, and do not place orders in advance. Only after confirming a stop-loss rebound can you enter to go long.
From the perspective of the daily level's large cycle, the previous central segment's top is also a horizontal support level at the 4-hour level. The Bitcoin price has not effectively broken below this point after two consecutive retests, and subsequently gained support rebound. Thus, it is judged that the downtrend is likely to have ended, and it will enter a rebound upward phase.
Although there is currently no clear reversal signal in the large cycle, signs of stop-loss have emerged, and rebound signals have appeared at the hourly level. If Bitcoin can effectively break through the current upward trend line, and the mid-term target price of 89,000 is also breached, it will further confirm the reversal trend.
From a medium to long-term perspective, Bitcoin is expected to test the key price level near 110,000, which is the second probe of the weekly top. If it can successfully break through and stabilize after a pullback, the bullish trend will be further strengthened.
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