As of April 16, 2025, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts the U.S. Q1 real GDP to be an annualized -2.2% (a slight upward adjustment from the previous -2.4%), but it still points to recession risks.

The main drag factors are as follows:

1. Net exports: -3.70 percentage points

2. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): +0.87 percentage points

3. Residential investment and inventory: slight positive adjustment

This round of GDP decline is not a full-blown recession, but rather a combination of "net export statistical deviations + consumption slowdown." If PCE rebounds in the coming period, the model's expectations may be significantly revised, with short-term signals weaker than the actual fundamentals.