Tonight, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. He will attend an event at the Chicago Economic Club and deliver a speech at 1:30 AM Beijing time on April 17.

Three possible attitudes from Powell and their impacts:

1. Dovish hints at interest rate cuts (such as emphasizing economic risks, controllable inflation, or the necessity of rate cuts): Gold and Bitcoin surge.

2. Hawkish stance remains unchanged (such as downplaying rate cuts, emphasizing sticky inflation): Continued decline.

3. Ambiguous: Sideways movement.

Powell comes to the rescue: (1) The trade war has spiraled out of control, and Trump will not win 100%. China is completely unlikely to yield to pressure; both bulls and Trump have fallen into a trap. (2) At 1:15 AM tonight, Powell may bring some hope of a market rebound, which could be a dead cat bounce, followed by new historical lows.

If Powell acknowledges the impact of tariffs on the economy, it could indirectly strengthen the logic for rate cuts, benefiting gold. If tariffs cause a sharp decline in U.S. stocks, it may indirectly suppress Bitcoin prices through liquidity tightening. Based on Powell's past statements, the probability of him being dovish is slightly lower. #比特币与美国关税政策