Regarding the ETF approval progress for Solana (SOL), there is currently a clear regional differentiation and regulatory complexity. Based on the latest developments and market analysis, several dimensions can be considered for a comprehensive judgment:
1. Canada has taken the lead, while the U.S. remains at a standstill.
1. Canadian Spot ETF Approved
On April 15, 2025, the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) in Canada approved the issuance of four Solana spot ETFs, including products from asset management companies such as 3IQ, CI, Evolve, and Attim. These ETFs not only track SOL prices but also allow investors to earn 6%-8% annualized returns through staking, becoming the first Solana ETF in North America to support staking functionality. This breakthrough provides regulatory reference for other regions, but Canada's market size is relatively small, limiting its impact on global liquidity.
2. U.S. Approval Stagnation
- Regulatory Obstacles: The SEC classifies SOL as a 'security,' which differs from the 'commodity' classification of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The SEC's enforcement division explicitly stated that SOL falls under unregistered securities in lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, making it difficult for the ETF application to pass under the commodity ETF approval logic.
- Absence of Futures Market: The SEC requires that the underlying assets of the ETF have a regulated futures market (such as CME Bitcoin futures), but SOL has not yet established such infrastructure, which is a core obstacle to approval.
- Application Status: Institutions like VanEck and 21Shares have submitted SOL spot ETF applications, but the SEC has not officially acknowledged some applications, and even rejected them outright. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicts that the U.S. SOL ETF may not launch until 2026.
2. The Double-Edged Sword Effect of Technology and Market Factors
1. Ecosystem Growth Supports Demand
Solana's ecosystem is developing rapidly, with a TVL (Total Value Locked) exceeding $8.5 billion in 2025, cumulative trading volume exceeding $408 billion, and fee revenue twice that of Ethereum. Its high performance (50,000 transactions per second) and low fees ($0.00001) have attracted DeFi, NFT, and gaming projects, enhancing institutional confidence in SOL's long-term potential.
2. Supply and Price Volatility Risks
- Token Unlocking Pressure: In March 2025, approximately 11.2 million SOL (worth about $2.06 billion) will be unlocked during the FTX bankruptcy liquidation. Although institutions like Galaxy are gradually releasing locked assets, short-term selling pressure may exacerbate price volatility.
- High Inflation Rate: The annual issuance rate of SOL is about 6%-8%, significantly higher than Bitcoin's 1.8%, which may dilute holder interests and affect the long-term attractiveness of the ETF.
3. Key Variables in Regulatory Policy
1. The Impact of U.S. Political Cycles
If Trump is re-elected in the 2025 election, he may appoint an SEC chair who supports cryptocurrencies (such as Hester Peirce), accelerating ETF approvals. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas believes that the likelihood of SOL ETF approval will significantly increase after a new government takes office.
2. Legislative and Case Law Progress
- Securities Classification Controversy: The Ripple lawsuit victory (2024) may provide legal reference for SOL, as a court ruling that XRP is not a security could weaken the SEC's accusations against SOL.
- Futures Market Development: If CME or other exchanges launch SOL futures, it will clear regulatory obstacles for the ETF. There are currently no clear plans.
4. Market Expectations and Capital Trends
1. Institutional Layout Acceleration
Fidelity, BlackRock, and other asset management giants have expressed interest in SOL, with some institutions accumulating positions through over-the-counter (OTC) trading. Grayscale has applied to convert the SOL Trust (GSOL) into an ETF, which could trigger capital inflows if approved.
2. Price and Sentiment Correlation
- Short-term Volatility: ETF application news once drove SOL prices up by 6%, but market concerns over approval delays led to a correction. The current price fluctuates between $122 and $149, and it is necessary to observe whether ETF capital inflows can break through resistance levels.
- Long-term Potential: Analysts predict that if the ETF is approved, SOL could attract billions of dollars in funding, pushing the price towards $300.
5. Conclusion and Recommendations
1. Canadian ETFs have been established, providing a compliant investment channel.
Investors seeking low-threshold participation in SOL can pay attention to ETF products listed on the Canadian TSX, but should be aware of cross-border investment tax and liquidity issues.
2. U.S. ETF Approval Requires Meeting Three Major Conditions
- SEC Re-evaluating SOL's Securities Status.
- Establish a Regulated SOL Futures Market.
- Political Environment Shifting to Support Cryptocurrencies.
The probability of approval in the U.S. in 2025 is expected to be low, with the possibility increasing in 2026.
3. Risk Warning
- Regulatory Uncertainty: The SEC may continue to delay or reject applications.
- Market Volatility: SOL prices are significantly influenced by the overall market and unlocking events.
- Ecological Risks: Technical failures or security vulnerabilities could undermine confidence.
Strategy Suggestions:
- Short-term: Watch U.S. regulatory developments, focus on SOL's support level ($122) and resistance level ($149).
- Long-term: If the ETF is approved and the ecosystem continues to expand, it can be accumulated during dips; otherwise, high valuation risks should be watched out for.
