Bitcoin and crypto prices have ricocheted wildly in recent weeks as U.S. president Donald Trump’s barrage of global trade tariffs fuels a dollar "confidence crisis" and fears of “collapse.”

The bitcoin price has bounced back from lows of around $75,000 per bitcoin in early April (despite Michael Saylor’s Strategy issuing a surprise bitcoin “sell” warning).

Now, as Wall Street banks prepare to face an “existential" threat, billionaire Ray Dalio has warned the U.S. is hurtling toward a financial crisis and recession that could be worse than 2008—something that BlackRock’s head of crypto has predicted could be a “big catalyst” for the bitcoin price.

"I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession," Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates who issued a similar warning in 2007, told NBC. "And I’m worried about something worse than [the 2008] recession if this isn’t handled well.”

Dalio said Trump’s aggressive pursuit of tariffs is causing a “breaking down of the monetary order,” adding to a lengthy X post from last week when he said, “we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place.”

In a rapidly escalating trade war, Trump has slapped tariffs of up to 145% on many China exports to the U.S., while China has hit back with a 125% levy on U.S. products.

Globally, Trump has added a 10% tax on goods entering the U.S. while giving many countries a 90-day deal deadline before he reinstates a raft of much higher charges.

The global trade war saw the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of global currencies, fall sharply last week, dropping under the 100 level and putting it on course to return to its 2022 range.The bitcoin price has climbed over the last month, despite recession fears taking hold. Betting markets are putting the odds of recession at between 40% to 60%, per Coindesk.

Last month, BlackRock’s head of digital assets Robbie Mitchnick predicted a recession could boost the bitcoin price.

“I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for bitcoin,” Mitchnick told Yahoo Finance, pointing to how recession responses such as increased fiscal spending, deficit accumulation, lower interest rates and monetary stimulus have historically boosted the bitcoin price.

Bitcoin and crypto market watchers are feeling bullish about the bitcoin price outlook even as uncertainty bubbles up over tariffs and the economy.

“Bitcoin is consolidating at higher levels (and above where it was trading before Trump’s election win in November last year), and the structural groundwork—ranging from institutional infrastructure to sovereign-level interest—is being quietly laid,” analysts with the Bitfinex bitcoin and crypto exchange said in an emailed note. "The market is coiled, not broken, and the coming months could bring significant upside if catalysts align." In December, Dalio warned of a looming "debt crisis" which he expects will trigger a sharp decline in the value of the U.S. dollar.

U.S. debt has soared over recent years, topping $35 trillion at the beginning of 2025, with Covid and lockdown stimulus measures contributing to massive government spending and helping to send inflation spiraling out of control in 2022.

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