The whales have increased their positions again!
On-chain data shows that their average cost for increasing positions is roughly around $83,000-$85,000. Sometimes, it is difficult to understand the purpose of whales' behavior using 'retail investor thinking.'
For instance, why did they massively increase their holdings around $81,000 right after the announcement of equivalent tariffs in early April, instead of waiting to buy after a decline? When BTC fell to $75,000, they didn't buy, but started buying again when it rebounded to $83,000...
At first glance, they look like a group of big-headed retail investors who are equally 'afraid of falling prices while chasing gains.' However, if we switch to a 'God's eye' perspective, we can find that the changes in the whales' holdings are closely related to market trends.
##
As shown in Figure 2, apart from the panic selling during the FTX collapse, all the reduction actions by the whales almost occurred at periodic highs.
Their timing when increasing their holdings is usually not very precise; for example, in February 2024 and July-August 2024, they bought in during price rebounds, just like now. But in terms of the overall direction, they are generally correct and rarely get trapped over a long period.