The cryptocurrency market recently experienced a significant correction, with Ethereum ($ETH ) recording its steepest Q1 decline since 2018—falling by 45%. This broader market downturn has heavily impacted altcoins, including Stellar (XLM), which has dropped 47% over the past 90 days.
However, recent developments suggest a potential turnaround. XLM has gained 5% in the past week, as sentiment across the market begins to improve. Analysts and traders are now closely watching XLM’s price action, noting striking similarities to its historical pattern ahead of the major rally in late 2017.
Technical Setup Echoes 2017 Breakout
In late 2017, Stellar saw a remarkable surge, rallying more than 3,500% from approximately $0.0025 to nearly $0.07 in a matter of months. Following the rally, the asset corrected sharply—declining over 81% to bottom out near $0.011. What proved crucial during that period was the role of the 50-week moving average, which acted as a critical support level and paved the way for a dramatic rebound. From that support zone, XLM went on to gain over 4,900%, becoming one of the standout performers of the bull market cycle.
Fast forward to 2025, and a familiar pattern is emerging. XLM began this cycle with a strong move from $0.09 to a peak of $0.64—an increase exceeding 600%. The subsequent correction wiped out 67% of its value, bringing it back down to the 50-week moving average, a level that once again appears to be acting as strong support.
Renewed Momentum and Market Optimism
Since reaching this critical technical zone, XLM has shown early signs of a recovery. The token has formed a series of higher lows and has climbed to $0.24, reflecting steady buying interest. This pattern of price stabilization and upward momentum is fueling optimism among traders that XLM may be preparing for another significant upward move.
Can History Repeat?
The parallels between XLM’s current chart structure and its 2017 breakout are compelling. Both scenarios featured an initial explosive rally, a sharp correction, and stabilization at the 50-week moving average. With this key technical level holding once again and momentum beginning to build, market participants are speculating whether a major breakout could be on the horizon.
If historical patterns are any indication, Stellar may be approaching a pivotal moment. While no outcome is guaranteed, the technical setup suggests that XLM could be entering the final stages of consolidation before a potential breakout—marking this as a critical juncture for the asset.
