1. Crypto market news quick pass
1. Altcoin market
The market cap share of altcoins continues to fall with no signs of bottoming out, and altcoins are continuously weakening.
2. Total cryptocurrency market cap
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies continues its upward trend in the short term.
3. Liquidation Heatmap
Yesterday said that BTC is very likely to spike up after the US stock market opens, then fall back. This has been realized, and today it looks like the same script.
4. Fear and Greed Index
Fear and Greed Index is 31, and market sentiment has stabilized.
2. Crypto circle news quick pass
1. A new wallet withdrew 3000 ETH from Kraken and borrowed USDC to transfer back to Kraken, suspected to be used for continuing to purchase ETH.
According to Lookonchain, about 5 hours ago, a newly created wallet withdrew 3,000 ETH (approximately $4.92 million) from Kraken, then deposited it into Aave and Compound, borrowed $3 million USDC, and then transferred the USDC back to Kraken, suspected to be used for further purchasing ETH.
2. Galaxy Digital associated wallet withdrew 9368 ETH from CEX in the past hour.
According to @ai_9684xtpa monitoring, the Galaxy Digital associated wallet withdrew a total of 9368 ETH from Binance and Bullish platforms in the past hour, valued at approximately $15.40 million based on an average price of $1644.
3. A certain whale liquidated 14,227 ETH in the past 11 hours, accumulating a profit of $931,000.
On-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa monitored, "A whale that bought 4224.5 ETH at an average price of $1619 on 04.13 has liquidated 14,227 ETH (approximately $23.32 million) in the past 11 hours, accumulating a profit of $931,000. Among them, the portion bought on 04.13 made a profit of $86,000, while the remaining part was bought at an average price of $1555 within a week, making a profit of $845,000.
4. A certain whale withdrew 1500 BTC, worth $128 million, from OKX in the past 20 hours.
Certain Lookonchain monitored, a whale withdrew 1500 BTC (worth $128 million) from OKX in the past 20 hours.
5. A certain address deposited 710,000 AVAX to Coinbase, expected to incur a loss of $12.19 million.
According to The Data Nerd monitoring, wallet 0xc9f deposited 710,000 AVAX (approximately $14.49 million) to Coinbase early this morning. This address received these tokens 3 months ago when their value was $26.68 million.
6. A certain whale is selling 6.25 million Fartcoins and 10 million POPCATs through a DCA strategy.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a large whale is selling 6.25 million Fartcoins (worth $5.53 million) and 10 million POPCATs (worth $2.68 million) through a DCA strategy.
3. Hot coin quick pass
1. OM
2. QUBIC
3. KERNEL
4. IP
5. FARTCOIN
6. ACT
7. SUI
8. BABY
9. ONDO
10. S
11. SOL
12. ETH
13. BTC
14. TRUMP
15. TAO
4. Crypto bloggers quick pass
1. Top trader Pigeon
Pigeon updated this afternoon:
The past month has been very challenging for me. As the price drivers of cryptocurrencies have undergone structural changes, shifting from industry-specific rules to macroeconomic factors dominating, my instincts and market judgments have not worked.
I used to always feel that I had an advantage in the market because I could clearly explain market fluctuations, but since then, my feelings have been off. It may be bad luck or other reasons; only time will tell us.
Since March, I have basically been at break-even, with trading volume down 60-70% compared to last month. I will continue to maintain low trading volume and tighten stop losses until I judge that the market trend is favorable again.
To emphasize again, I still believe that the high time frame (HTF) picture of the crypto market has not changed — we were in a bear market before the tariff war and are still in a bear market. I still tend to look for shorting opportunities in altcoins (excluding Bitcoin) during bear market rebounds, as I believe these tokens have not approached deep value ranges (monthly bottom).
(Pigeon believes that it is still a bear market, and he plans to short altcoins at highs. Recently, he has not been performing well and often makes wrong judgments leading to stop losses. He will increase the frequency of trades once his state improves.)
2. Trader Vivian
Vivian updated last night:
According to the textbook model, it may re-touch 76-78K. Remember April 20. We will buy again between April 20 and April 22. From then on, the market may continue to rise for 2-3 months. This is a good opportunity for investors!
Spot can partially take profit or continue holding, leveraged contracts must be liquidated.
(Vivian still believes that BTC will fall below 80K again in the next few days; she suggests taking profits on long positions.)
3. Top trader Joshua
He wrote down his personal views on the market last night:
Overall market: I believe the current market is a news-driven market. A single piece of news can cause significant market fluctuations.
Regarding the S&P index, I believe it may oscillate in the range of 5000~5500 points. I think it will be difficult to continue rising after a V-shaped rebound, but if there are no negative news like China selling US Treasury bonds, the market's downward space will be limited.
Cryptocurrency market: I personally believe that the importance of fundamentals in the future market will gradually increase.
The current cryptocurrency market is mainly dominated by individual investors, thus showing high volatility. Once the rise of a token ends, they often experience sustained declines.
The market is still very immature, and the issue of information asymmetry is serious. Today, tokens like OM have no fundamental support and dropped over 80% overnight.
Future market structure changes: I believe that after Trump is elected, as regulations improve, the barriers for institutions to enter the market will decrease. Although the current regulatory framework is not yet perfect, if clear standards are established, institutional funds will flow into mainstream altcoin projects beyond Bitcoin.
These tokens may be projects with long-term growth potential.
Which projects will survive? We need to focus not only on short-term gains but also on selecting tokens that can create a mid-to-long-term rising asset curve.
Ultimately, the key to value lies in the project itself.
In the future, potential institutional investors will make investment decisions based on higher education levels and more comprehensive research. They will not invest in projects like 'meme coins' or short-term trends but will choose projects with actual use cases.
Moreover, business connectivity is also an important factor. For instance, tokens like the past Ripple (XRP), HBAR, which were thought to be dead, successfully rebounded due to corporate collaborations.
If this trend continues, the market will no longer be a highly speculative market but will align more with traditional stock market patterns.
Nevertheless, due to the market being retail-driven, there will always be speculative funds alongside us, and opportunities will always exist.
Because the market is relatively quiet, I wrote these.
(Joshua believes that after a V-shaped rebound, it will be difficult for the stock market to continue rising and will likely oscillate sideways. The crypto circle will see more institutional funds entering, focusing on potential projects rather than short-term speculative projects.)
4. Top trader Altcoin Sherpa
He updated last night:
Honestly, it's meaningless to criticize $ETH now; you shouldn't go long on this coin for a while, unless it shows some signs of buying. It's close to the 2019 lows and no signs of reversal are observed.
In the cryptocurrency market, you may be troubled by various 'meme coins', potential projects, $ETH, etc. This reminds us that almost all coins will eventually drop to 0, and you should never hold altcoins for years.
(Sherpa believes that one should not go long on ETH in the short term, and certainly not hold altcoins for the long term.)
5. Top trader RunnerXBT
He updated this afternoon:
BTC.D may reach 64% today/this week
No matter what happens, this may be my most accurate 'prediction'
Altcoins R.I.P
(He believes that Bitcoin's market cap percentage will continue to rise while the total market cap of altcoins will continue to decline. The rise of BTC does not affect the decline of altcoins.)
6. Wave Theory Liu Yudong
April 15, 2025 Daily chart
It has been hitting the downward trend line for three consecutive days without success, today it is at the edge of this trend line, which is at 84710 today. It aims to break through during the accumulation phase. Today's observation points are still at 79476 and 86668; only breaking 86668 can validate that the rebound has started.
(Liu Yudong believes that the 86668 point is very critical; if successfully broken, BTC will start a daily level rebound, otherwise looking down at 79476)
5. Summary
After the US stock market opened last night, it rose first and then fell as expected, spiking up to 85800 before starting to decline, but there was no significant drop as anticipated, only dropping to around 83700 before continuing to push up. However, altcoins overall performed much worse than BTC, with ETH and SOL basically moving sideways; most altcoins did not return to yesterday's prices today.
The market fluctuates repeatedly, making it hard to trade altcoins, but BTC and ETH are relatively simple; go long on BTC and short on ETH.
Today, continue to observe whether BTC can continue to break through. Currently, the likelihood of a false breakthrough is high; thus, one should not chase long positions around 86K. Instead, trying to short with stop-loss is feasible. It’s best to short with light positions, while larger positions can wait for opportunities to go long after BTC corrects or for spot buying opportunities.
Statement:
The above information is for reference only, not trading advice. The crypto circle is high risk; participation should be cautious.
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