Will there still be a season for altcoins in the cryptocurrency market?

Before discussing this question, we need to clarify four key issues: the definition of an altcoin season, the conditions for its formation, the corresponding phase of BTC's operation, and the differences between the past and present.

1. What is an altcoin season?

It refers to a period when altcoins generally rise, often occurring during the rotation of capital sectors.

2. Basic conditions for formation

1. Individual coins exhibit a bullish structure or are in a rally after a significant pullback.

2. Market enthusiasm, filled with FOMO sentiment.

3. Ample idle funds after mainstream coins have surged.

Currently, most altcoins do not meet these conditions.

3. Corresponding phase of BTC's operation

Typically, altcoins belong to the third tier, initiated when mainstream coins like BTC rise or consolidate, and capital overflows (a few strong coins may correlate). Now even ETH and others are weak, making it harder to talk about an altcoin market.

4. Differences between the past and present

In previous bull markets, the market was small, funds were abundant, and there were few altcoins (over a thousand), with narratives well-planned; today there are over 7000 types of altcoins (not counting over ten thousand), many are priced but lack market activity, relying heavily on contracts and KOL endorsements, similar to the CX token market.

This round of altcoin season is concentrated from October 2023 to March 2024, with most altcoins expected to drop alongside BTC after June, and even strong coins are showing fatigue, with trapped positions limiting upward movement.

Summary

While some individual altcoins still exhibit volatility, the traditional meaning of an 'altcoin season' is unlikely to reappear. A few strong altcoins may correlate with BTC, but most are no longer comparable to the past, and caution is needed against CX and air coin traps.