#比特币与美国关税政策
1. The Impact of Tariff Policy on the US Stock Market
1. Market Panic and Stock Market Crash
After the US government announced the imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' on multiple countries in early April 2025, the US stock market experienced severe turbulence. From April 3 to April 4, the S&P 500 index fell nearly 10%, and the Nasdaq index entered a technical bear market, with a market cap evaporation of $6.6 trillion in two days, setting a historical record. Tech giants like Apple and Nvidia saw stock price declines of over 7%-9%, and multinational company Nike plummeted 14% due to supply chain disruptions. The market fears that tariffs will raise corporate costs and trigger a global economic recession, leading to panic selling by investors.
2. Reshaping Long-Term Expectations and Ending the Bull Market
Analysis indicates that the Trump administration's tariff policy aims to reduce the fiscal deficit rather than consider economic stability, which has altered the market's long-term bullish expectations for the US stock market, ending the uptrend that began in 2022. Frequent policy reversals (such as exempting tariffs for certain countries only to escalate tariffs on China) further exacerbated market volatility, and investors’ concerns about policy uncertainty continued to ferment.
2. Constraints on the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Path
1. Intensified Inflationary Pressures
Tariffs have raised the cost of imported goods. Inflationary pressures limit the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates, as high inflation may force the central bank to maintain a tightening policy to stabilize prices.
2. Policy Dilemma and Risk of Economic Recession
Although the Federal Reserve's 2025 dot plot maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts, the actual path is constrained by multiple factors. On one hand, price increases and supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs intensify the risk of stagflation; on the other hand, a stock market crash and declining consumer confidence may force rate cuts to stimulate the economy. However, Federal Reserve officials have emphasized the need to be wary of recurring inflation, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be more cautious than expected.
In conclusion:
The US tariff strategy has severely impacted the stock market in the short term through supply chain shocks and cost transmission, while in the long term, it influences monetary policy by raising inflation and undermining economic resilience. If the tariff conflict continues to escalate, the Federal Reserve may be forced to balance between curbing inflation and preventing recession, leading to further downward adjustments in rate cut expectations, and even triggering a stagflation crisis. The subsequent market direction will highly depend on the stability of policies and the degree of easing in global trade relations.
