#比特币与美国关税政策 BTC has a strong correlation with U.S. policies, exhibiting characteristics of 'regulation-driven' volatility. The SEC's regulatory classification (commodity/security attributes) directly affects compliance channels: the approval of spot ETFs in 2024 is expected to drive institutional holdings over $150 billion, while if the 'Digital Asset Bill' defines BTC as a 'commodity' in 2025, it will fall under the CFTC regulatory framework, enhancing market stability; if classified as a 'security', it will be subject to strict SEC regulations, potentially limiting retail participation. In terms of monetary policy, during the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 reached 0.82, and in 2024, as expectations for interest rate cuts rise, BTC saw a three-month increase of 75%. Tax policies (such as the capital gains tax rising to 37% in 2026) and banking regulations (OCC restrictions on cryptocurrency custody) act as short-term suppressing factors. Overall, U.S. policies dominate 60%-70% of BTC's mid-term price trends through three channels: capital flow, market access, and risk appetite.