By 2030, the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate between $100,000 and $200,000, driven by core factors including:
1. Halving Effect and Scarcity: Bitcoin is halved every four years, and the halving in 2028 will reduce the annual inflation rate to below 0.6%. Coupled with the total supply limit of 21 million coins, the logic of scarcity is reinforced. Historical data shows that prices typically break previous highs 12-18 months after a halving, with the price increasing over 600% after the 2020 halving; this pattern may continue until 2030.
2. Institutionalization and Compliance Process: The scale of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. has surpassed $25 billion. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund indirectly holds 3,821 Bitcoins through companies like MicroStrategy, while asset management giants like Fidelity and BlackRock are accelerating their positions. If the institutional allocation ratio increases from the current 0.1% to 1%, it could bring over $200 billion in capital inflows, pushing the price center upwards.
3. Technological Iteration and Practicality: The number of Lightning Network nodes has surpassed 12,000, with a transaction capacity exceeding 5,000 BTC, and payment confirmation times reduced to seconds. After the comprehensive implementation of Layer 2 scaling solutions in 2025, Bitcoin could handle a million transactions per second, accelerating penetration into enterprise-level application scenarios (such as supply chain finance and cross-border settlement), enhancing its currency attributes as “digital gold.”
4. Macroeconomic and Policy Game: Global central bank digital currency (CBDC) competition intensifies, highlighting Bitcoin's value as a decentralized alternative. If the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts after 2025, a negative real interest rate will stimulate demand for anti-inflation assets; conversely, if the U.S. launches a “digital dollar” and strengthens regulation, it may suppress prices in the short term, but in the long run, the compliance process will enhance market depth.
Risk points include liquidity shocks triggered by China's complete ban, threats to blockchain security from quantum computing, and market volatility caused by repeated regulatory policies. A comprehensive assessment suggests that the probability of Bitcoin's price exceeding $200,000 by 2030 is about 40%, while the probability of it falling below $50,000 is less than 20%, with a high likelihood of oscillating upward in the $100,000-$150,000 range.
