Currently, there are two analyses regarding Trump's tariff war. If the average 'high tariff' scenario of 25% is maintained, core PCE inflation may rise to 4% to 5%. If tariffs lead to a significant economic slowdown that threatens a recession, even if inflation is above 2%, there is a high probability of an early rate cut;

In the 'low tariff' scenario, where only a 10% tariff is retained, the inflation peak is about an annualized 3%, with weaker impacts and slower transmission. If core inflation continues to decline, the Federal Reserve will consider rate cuts in the second half of the year. Therefore, an important economic data point is needed to decisively determine the key factors leading to a recession due to the tariff war, thereby changing the current tariff policy.

Before that, the market will not directly reverse to bullish. Currently, although market sentiment has somewhat recovered, the short-term options market still leans bearish.

BTC: From the overall K-line trend, the 1-hour line shows an M-top trend with some divergence; placing a short position near 86000 with the first take profit at 79650 seems reasonable.

SOL: Currently oscillating in a high range of 128-132, one can attempt a short position at 132, with the first take profit at 113.

Still a mental massage.