June may be a critical turning point for global capital markets, and everything starts with the huge troubles of the Trump administration—this year the U.S. government has $9.2 trillion in national debt to refinance, with $6.5 trillion maturing in June alone. This is equivalent to Trump’s team needing to complete two impossible tasks in 90 days: they must coax Wall Street into continuing to buy national debt to fill the holes, while also having to push new national debt interest rates down to the lowest possible level, otherwise they will have to pay an extra hundred billion dollars in interest each year.
Put simply, this is a life-and-death game for Trump and the Wall Street tycoons. The U.S. is currently divided into two factions: industrial capital supporting Trump’s manufacturing return, and the Soroses who rely on financial harvesting. The June U.S. debt auction is the arena for these two factions to wrestle—if Trump can suppress national debt interest rates and save a hundred billion in interest each year, he will have more confidence in pushing his policies; if Wall Street successfully raises interest rates and profits at the expense, all the money Trump worked hard to earn from tariffs will have to go to fill the interest hole.
This explains why Trump’s recent actions have been unusual: while he shouts about raising tariffs as a paper tiger, he secretly exempts some goods. In fact, he doesn’t care about the ups and downs of the U.S. stock market; he might actually be deliberately making things happen to drive the market down—because the worse the stock market performs, the more funds will flee to national debt, thus naturally lowering national debt interest rates. Last week, when U.S. debt suddenly cooled, it scared him into rescinding the tariffs on electronic products overnight, resembling a player in Mahjong who draws a bad hand and furiously drops the tiles.
As for us, the big holders of U.S. debt like China and Japan, we are not in a hurry to act. After all, the borrower is more anxious than the creditor; the Trump administration's repayment deadline at the end of June hangs like a guillotine over their heads. We just need to sit back with tea and watch the show, occasionally shaking the trillions in U.S. debt chips in our hands, enough to keep Wall Street and Washington awake at night. This grand drama will be revealed in June, and global capital is waiting for this critical turning point.
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