Talk about my views on $DOT
Polkadot (DOT) Investment Analysis:
From a technical perspective, Polkadot is a pioneer in the cross-chain space, with a core team that has an Ethereum background, focusing on multi-chain interconnectivity and ecosystem incubation. Currently, the ecosystem covers areas such as DeFi and cross-chain communication, with the official funding pool continuously supporting project development, and the technical roadmap has a certain foresight.
There are two real dilemmas: first, the actual demand for cross-chain transfers has not yet exploded, and users are sensitive to cross-chain transaction fees and security premiums; second, the token is issued at an annual rate of about 10%, which will dilute returns for long-term holders.
The current market value of $6.4 billion belongs to a market-neutral expectation. A simple division of price ranges: above $30 is the bubble price from the 2021 DeFi boom; $20-$30 depends on whether the parachain auctions can restart the ecosystem; below $10 is close to the token release cost, suitable for long-term positioning.
Operational suggestions:
From a technical perspective, look at the weekly Bollinger Bands, enter when the price touches the 20-month moving average + RSI is below 30, and it is more reliable to combine with MACD bottom divergence signals; do not exceed 15% of your crypto asset position, with a focus on parachain slot auctions and XCMP protocol upgrades; set profit-taking at the 50-week moving average position to prevent standing guard in the late bull market.
Key points to watch: short-term cross-chain demand is suppressed by other public chains, and in the long term, we need to see if metaverse applications can be implemented. If the cross-chain standards of Polkadot and Cosmos can be connected, DOT may become the settlement layer of the multi-chain world. But currently, the amount of ecological funds has only 15% of the peak, and fundamental recovery will still take time.
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Intraday focus: OM SUI SOL FUN BTC