1. Market review and key level analysis

Short-term resistance and support

Short-term resistance ($88,000): Currently, BTC is under pressure in the $86,000-$87,000 range on the 4-hour chart, with multiple unsuccessful attempts, forming a local top structure. If it fails to break through $88,000 (daily EMA60 and MA60 crossover pressure), it may trigger a technical correction.

Medium-term resistance ($91,000): Weekly resistance is in the $88,000-$90,000 range, where it coincides with the March 2025 high and Fibonacci retracement zone, indicating heavy selling pressure.

Short-term support ($80,000): The $80,000 level has been tested multiple times recently; if it breaks, it may accelerate downward to the second support level of $75,500 (mining shutdown price and February 2025 low).

Technical indicator signals

4-hour level: MACD fast and slow lines are converging in negative territory, RSI is neutral to weak (56.74), and prices are capped by the Bollinger Band middle line ($84,500), requiring caution for top divergence risks.

Daily level: EMA7 ($84,533) forms a death cross with EMA30; if the closing price falls below $83,000, it may trigger a deeper correction.

2. Risk warning: Beware of bullish traps

Identify bullish signals

False breakout: In the recent rebound, BTC has repeatedly dropped near $86,000, forming long upper shadows, indicating the intent of major funds to sell at higher levels.

Volume-price divergence: On April 14, during the rebound, trading volume decreased by 18% compared to the previous day, and short positions accounted for 34%, indicating a lack of sustained buying.

Macroeconomic bearish factors

Federal Reserve policy: If the interest rate decision on April 25 releases a signal of 'delayed rate cuts,' it may trigger a decline in the crypto market linked to US stocks.

Geopolitical risks: Upgraded tariffs between China and the US (effective April 14) may exacerbate risk aversion sentiment, leading to capital outflows from risk assets.

3. Options strategy recommendation: Straddle combination to hedge volatility

For the current volatile market, it is recommended to buy a straddle options combination to capture bidirectional volatility at a low cost:

Strategy composition

Buy call options: Strike price $88,000, duration 7 days, betting on a breakout of key resistance.

Buy put options: Strike price $80,000, duration 7 days, to hedge the risk of breaking support.

Profit and loss ratio analysis

Cost: Total premium around 5%-8% of position, suitable for light positioning.

Profit scenarios:

If BTC breaks through $88,000, the profits from call options can cover put option costs, with a target of $91,000.

If it falls below $80,000, put options profit to hedge spot losses, with a target below of $75,500.

Stop-loss discipline: close positions when premium losses exceed 50% to avoid time decay risk.

4. Operational advice: Short sellers should not chase highs

Spot strategy

Holders: Reduce positions in batches as the price rebounds to $86,000-$87,000, keeping 50% cash to respond to corrections.

Short sellers: patiently wait for signs of stabilization near $80,000 (such as a 4-hour bullish engulfing candle + RSI oversold) to avoid chasing highs and selling lows.

Contract strategy

Mainly short positions: Set short positions above $86,500, with a stop-loss at $88,000, targeting $83,000-$80,000.

Breakout shorting: If the 1-hour chart shows a volume breakout below $83,000, you can short down to $78,000, with dynamic profit-taking.

5. Summary

The current market is at a critical point of long and short contention, with both technical and macro factors pointing to direction selection after high-level fluctuations. Investors must adhere strictly to discipline to avoid emotional trading. The options combination can effectively hedge volatility risk, while spot operations should be defensive, focusing on the validity of the $80,000 support. Remember: Corrections in a bull market are to build momentum for the next rise, but blindly chasing highs may become the 'fuel' for the main players.