🌟 Event recap: Two major announcements incoming
1️⃣ Buffett's retirement brings uncertainties to the crypto market
The 94-year-old 'Oracle of Omaha' Warren Buffett officially announced his resignation as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Successor Greg Abel had previously led investments in the crypto-friendly bank Nu Holdings (which supports BTC/ETH trading). The market speculates that Berkshire may gradually embrace crypto assets, with institutional capital flows potentially becoming key to BTC volatility.
2️⃣ ETH Pectra upgrade countdown 3 days
On May 7, Ethereum will initiate the Pectra upgrade, aiming to reduce gas fees and improve network performance. However, the current ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a 5-year low, on-chain liquidity is weak, and capital may continue to flow into BTC as a safe haven.
📊 BTC options strategy: Hedge risk + capture opportunity
Current market key points
Current BTC price: Around $95,000, support at $93,000, resistance at $98,500.
Volatility: Influenced by macro policies (Trump tariffs, Federal Reserve interest rates) and market sentiment, short-term volatility is heightened.
Strategy 1: Bull Call Spread
Applicable scenario: Optimistic about BTC breaking through $96,000 but concerned about the risk of pullback.
Operations:
Buy 1 call option with a strike price of $95,000.
Simultaneously sell 1 call option with a strike price of $98,000.
Profit logic: Lower cost, profit ceiling locked at $98,000. If BTC breaks resistance, profit is realized; if it falls below $95,000, only the premium is lost.
Strategy 2: Sell Put Options
Applicable scenario: Believes BTC has strong short-term support and is unlikely to break the oscillation range.
Operations: Sell put options with a strike price of $91,600, collecting the premium.
Advantages: If BTC remains above $91,600, the premium is fully earned; if it falls below, purchases will need to be made at the market price, suitable for long-term holders.
⚠️ Risk warning and operational suggestions
1️⃣ Strict stop-loss: Option buyers have limited losses, while sellers need to set a stop-loss line (e.g., liquidate if BTC falls below $91,600).
2️⃣ Position management: Single strategy should not exceed 5% of total capital to avoid excessive leverage.
3️⃣ Focus on time value: As May 7 approaches for upgrades and options expiration (end of May), avoid holding deeply out-of-the-money contracts.
🌈 Trend outlook: BTC's 'golden window period'?
Short-term: If the ETH upgrade fails to boost confidence, BTC's market cap ratio may exceed 63%, and the 'vampire effect' may continue.
Long-term: If Berkshire increases its crypto involvement, BTC's position as the 'institutional favorite' will be solidified, with $100,000 being the next target.
(This article is for learning reference only and does not constitute any decision-making basis)
#BTC options strategy[topic]# #Buffett retirement[topic]# #Ethereum upgrade[topic]# #Quantitative trading[topic]#
