On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq intraday up 0.8%, the S&P 500 up 0.95%, and the Dow Jones Index up 0.8%, while gold prices surged to a new high of $3,245 per ounce. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated: In a scenario with smaller tariffs, interest rate cuts may occur in the second half of the year; in a scenario with large tariffs, if significant economic slowdown happens, there is a tendency to cut rates earlier and more significantly than previously thought.
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U.S. Senator Tim Scott expects that the cryptocurrency market structure bill will become law by August 2025. The Senate Banking Committee has advanced a comprehensive stablecoin regulatory bill, the 'GENIUS Act', in March 2025, indicating that the committee prioritizes crypto policy and that innovation should proceed before regulation to ensure the U.S. digital asset dominance. Acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda stated that the agency may consider establishing a short-term crypto regulatory framework to allow businesses to continue innovating while the agency develops more permanent answers for digital asset regulation, facilitating greater innovation in blockchain technology. OpenAI announced on its website that starting April 30, GPT-4 will be 'completely replaced' by GPT-4o, but GPT-4 will continue to be available through the API. BlackRock's BUIDL fund has reached $2.372 billion, with a weekly increase of 25.07%. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that in Q1 2025, the number of users of its stablecoin grew by 13%. Japanese listed company Metaplanet Inc. announced an increase of 319 BTC. Cointelegraph reported that Bo Hines, Executive Director of the White House President's Digital Asset Working Group, said, 'We need to hoard BTC as soon as possible before it becomes more expensive.' Tether issued an additional $1 billion in stablecoins on April 12.
Analyst James Van Straten stated that the current market sell-off triggered by the uncertainty of Trump's tariff measures began on April 3, and the BTC/VIX ratio reached the long-term trend line, historical data shows this often indicates the bottom for BTC prices. The trend line was previously effective in August 2024, March 2020, and earlier in August 2015. If this trend line continues to provide reliable support, it may mean that BTC has once again established a long-term bottom. Fox reporter Charles Gasparino stated that the market's reaction to the 'Tim Apple tariff exemptions' is expected to be positive, and the Nasdaq may rise, further exposing the weaknesses in the arguments of U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross and U.S. Trade Advisor Navarro regarding 'creating jobs domestically'. Investors generally believe that this tariff plan is one of the worst policy rollouts in recent years. Over the weekend, Trump's tariff measures changed again, and the U.S. government's related online platform released information on April 11, exempting certain electronic products from the so-called 'reciprocal tariffs'. Economist Jared Bernstein stated that the exemption for certain electronic products' tariffs is because Trump is beginning to realize the impact of tariffs on reality. Economist Robert Gulotty stated that the chain reaction triggered by tariff policies has reached a pain point in the U.S. The Kobeissi Letter analysis: The published exemption policy covers some of the most important imported products, signaling a concession from the U.S., as the bond market is forcing Trump to make concessions, and the bond market is Trump's top priority, and now everyone knows that.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that a U.S. economic recession may have already begun, with escalating economic pressures and protectionist trade policies being key drivers behind the economic slowdown. Analysts say that for cryptocurrency investors, an economic slowdown may prompt the Federal Reserve to change its monetary tightening path, potentially triggering a new wave of liquidity, which could become a major catalyst for crypto assets like BTC. On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq rising 2%. Intraday data showed that the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation was 3.58%, higher than the expected value of 3.26% and the previous value of 3.13%. The Nasdaq's gain fell to 0.8%, the S&P 500 rose 0.95%, and the Dow Jones Index rose 0.8%, while BTC and ETH remained flat. New York Fed: It is expected that the U.S. unemployment rate will rise to its highest level since April 2020 in March. Gold prices surged to a new high of $3,245 per ounce. Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 gold price target from the previous $3,300 per ounce to $3,700 per ounce, an increase of 12% from the previous forecast. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that high inflation due to tariffs will be temporary; in a scenario with smaller tariffs, interest rate cuts may occur in the second half of the year; in a scenario with large tariffs, if significant economic slowdown occurs, rate cuts may happen earlier and more significantly than previously thought.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated, 'He is preparing to deal with the chaos of the nearly $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, while the Federal Reserve will only take action when they start to panic a bit. Turbulence in the U.S. Treasury market leading to Fed intervention may prompt some investors to turn to BTC, which is often seen as a hedge against currency instability, as was the case in 2020 when the Fed took aggressive stimulus measures and BTC prices soared.' MicroStrategy increased its holdings by $285.8 million BTC (3,459 BTC) between April 7 and April 13. Trump's erratic tariff measures have shaken market confidence in U.S. policymaking and the economy. Last Friday, the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury faced its worst week since 2019 due to a sell-off. March's inflation CPI dropped to 2.4%, and the easing of inflationary pressures could prompt the Fed to lower interest rates and loosen financial conditions, providing room for a pivot in the Fed's May and June meetings. In March 2020, the U.S. Treasury market collapsed, forcing the Fed to intervene with a commitment to buy trillions of dollars in bonds, leading to a significant rise in the crypto market at that time. When the market focus shifts from negative impacts caused by tariffs to rate cuts for stabilization, it could signal the beginning of a market turnaround. The crypto market has seen a slight rebound in recent days, with analysts watching when the Fed will step in to intervene in the market.
