It focuses on using volume shrinkage or expansion to identify buy/sell signals, reversals, and false breakouts.
Let’s break down the key insights from each section:
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### Figure 4A and 4B: Buy/Sell Signals Based on Volume Shrinkage
- Concept: When price tests a previous high/low, the change in volume is more important than the actual volume figure.
- Sell Signal (Figure 4A):
- Volume shrinks consistently (e.g., 115K → 105K).
- If the final test shows less than 8% shrinkage, but still more than 3%, it's in “no man's land” — caution zone.
- If the test happens with less than 8% volume of the first high/low, expect a reversal (sell).
- Buy Signal (Figure 4B):
- Same principle in reverse.
- Volume shrinkage shows weakness in the move down, suggesting a potential reversal up.
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### Figure 4: Comparing Volume on Retests
- Even on the 3rd or 4th retest, compare volume to the first high/low.
- If volume is equal to or greater than the original and price exceeds it, expect continuation.
- If volume is less than 8%, expect a reversal.
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### Figure 5: Reversing Back Into Trading Range
Key points:
1. < 3% change in volume on retest implies likely breakout (not reversal).
2. Use percentage shrinkage/increase, not raw volume.
3. If price fails to exceed the previous high/low and volume shrinks by at least 8%, expect reversal.
4. If it exceeds with equal or greater volume, expect continuation.
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### Figure 6: False Breakouts
- If price breaks high/low with 8%+ volume shrinkage, and then returns into the range, it's a false break.
- Example:
- First test at 100K vol, next at 90K vol (10% shrinkage) = likely fakeout.
- Monitor whether price re-enters the range to confirm.
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### Important Notes:
- Apply these rules even to gaps or support/resistance zones.
- A consistent volume pattern helps you anticipate breakouts or reversals.
- 3% margin: If volume change is within this, assume continuation.
Application Tip:
This method is especially useful in range-bound markets or during retests of breakout levels. It helps traders avoid traps (fakeouts) and time entries based on the volume conviction behind a price move.