$BTC
### 1. **Silence from Creators During Panic**
- If the team stayed silent during a sharp price drop, it fuels distrust. Legitimate projects usually communicate proactively during volatility (e.g., clarifying if it’s a hack, liquidation, or partnership issue).
- Their later focus on "liquidation on the exchange" feels like post-hoc justification unless proven with on-chain/data evidence (e.g., large wallet dumps or exchange-led liquidations).
### 2. **Large Investor Exit (4.5% Supply Dump)**
- Your Bitcoin analogy is apt: A 4.5% sell-off in a low-liquidity altcoin is catastrophic. For context, even a 0.5% Bitcoin sell-off can trigger double-digit percent swings.
- **OTC vs. Open Market**: If the sale was OTC, the price impact might’ve been delayed. OTC deals often avoid immediate market slippage, but the buyer could then drip-feed coins into thin order books, causing sustained downward pressure (as you noted).
### 3. **Absence of Rebound**
- A rebound typically requires:
- **New demand** outweighing sell pressure (if whales or algo traders step in).
- **Short squeezes** (if the drop was leveraged positions getting liquidated).
- If neither happened, it suggests:
- **Weak organic demand**: No buyers at lower prices (bad sign for token utility).
- **Covert Dumping**: As you said, coins could be slowly offloaded via bots or hidden orders.
### 4. **Scam Red Flags**
- **Team Wallet Activity**: Check if creators/dev wallets moved tokens before/during the crash (use Etherscan/BscScan).
- **Exchange Listings**: If the token is only on shady exchanges with low volume, manipulation is easier.
- **Tokenomics**: High team/VC allocations with no vesting = pump-and-dump risk.
### 5. **Can the Coin Stay Depressed Despite Demand?**
- **Yes**, if:
- The "demand" is illusory (wash trading, fake volume).
- Sellers control more supply than buyers (e.g., unlock of vested tokens).
- The project has no fundamental value (hype-driven tokens often never recover).
