Recently, we witness ‘history’ every day.
On April 11, the White House press secretary announced that the tariff on China has been increased to 145%, and the new rate has taken effect.
A tariff rate as high as three digits is undoubtedly something we, who have lived in the era of globalization for a long time, have never seen before.
April 9 has always been regarded as a key date. According to the tariff threats issued by Trump earlier, this is the day when the increased tariff rates take effect. How the increased tariffs against other countries will materialize is still uncertain, but the hammer of tariffs against China has already fallen heavily.
Regardless of whether this wave of tariff war in the U.S. is aimed at the whole world, it is certainly aimed at China.
Under the behavioral logic of the Trump administration, today’s 145% tariff is not surprising.
For the U.S., whether the high tariffs on China are ‘wounding a thousand enemy troops while damaging five hundred of its own’ or ‘wounding a thousand enemy troops while damaging two thousand of its own’ is a matter of great debate. However, no matter how much the U.S. ultimately ‘damages itself,’ China will definitely be ‘wounded a thousand,’ and the short-term shock faced by the Chinese economy is unavoidable.
But if we look at it from a more optimistic perspective, there are only two possible directions after the tariff increase.
First, the economic and trade decoupling between China and the U.S. is accelerating, with China actively reforming under external pressure and expanding domestic demand.
Secondly, the demand of American companies and consumers for Chinese cheap goods still exists; excessively high tariff rates result in high enforcement costs, and Chinese goods may still enter the U.S. through convoluted means.
A lawyer friend said, ‘If we compare this to the Prohibition that really happened in American history, if the U.S. government precisely targets Scotch whisky, it might indeed make Scotch whisky disappear from the U.S. market. But if the U.S. government implements a nationwide, one-size-fits-all prohibition, the final result can only be widespread smuggling and illegal brewing, just like what happened in history.’
‘If the U.S. imposes high tariffs on the whole world, and the extra tariffs on China add up to over 100%, I would actually feel optimistic. Let alone Chinese companies, even American private enterprises will find ways to evade U.S. government regulations. These methods are definitely not what the U.S. government would like to see.’ This is a friend’s judgment.
No matter which of these two trends emerges, or if both emerge simultaneously, things may not necessarily turn out to be that bad.
As for the macro situation, I will stop my analysis here. This is an unprecedented economic war, but for ordinary people, we are not at the card table regarding how this war will unfold.
How to face this war is a more important question for us than the military simulations of the war.
First, work diligently. The trade war will certainly affect the macro economy, and the macro economy will undoubtedly affect employment; this is something ordinary workers cannot change. But what we can do is to ‘lower expectations.’ Many people are accustomed to the inertia of high growth periods. Although the structural adjustment of the Chinese economy has been ongoing since 2018, there are still many industries and enterprises that maintain a relatively high growth curve, and practitioners still hope for promotions and salary increases. Especially after the recent wave of DeepSeek at the beginning of this year, social sentiment has risen again, and many people's expectations have become higher.
Many times, we can hear complaints about the company and superiors. But at this time, ordinary workers can really think from another perspective; in fact, the boss may have it harder than you. Don’t act impulsively, don’t resign, just hold on to achieve victory.
Secondly, invest prudently. The unprecedented trade war brings huge market turbulence, and ordinary people are like small boats, finding it difficult to escape unscathed from the stormy waves. Maintain a certain level of savings, leave sufficient risk redundancy for yourself, and remain cautious in the capital market; do not blindly engage in short-term trading, and do not rush to bottom-fish, or you might end up buying at the halfway up the mountain.
Third, improve oneself. In the past few months, everyone has been talking about AI; once the trade war started, all other topics faded away. But we must not forget a macro background—technological progress leads to structural unemployment. The trade war is a product of Trump’s rise to power, which is essentially a result of the interests of the American working class being harmed, and the harm to the interests of the American working class is a product of technological progress and globalization; this is all interconnected.
In the 21st century, all lower-level, non-creative jobs, whether blue-collar or white-collar, face a huge risk of being replaced. People cannot compete with AI for jobs; currently, the strength of humans lies in experience and emotions. Everyone should think about whether they have the opportunity to lean towards this aspect.
In this new social form, exploring new directions does not require quitting one’s job. Trying to be a ‘slash youth’ may not earn much, but it can certainly provide oneself with more paths.
Fourth, live happily. During the anti-Japanese war, when Japan bombed Sichuan, once the enemy planes withdrew, everyone would return to tea houses to drink tea. This is the character of the people of Sichuan; even in a real hot war, it does not change the rhythm of life.
It should be more so now. There is no need to be depressed by Trump; eat and drink as usual, that is the best. Moreover, since the biggest challenge for the Chinese economy now is insufficient domestic demand, every time you go out to consume, you are contributing to the Chinese economy, pleasing yourself while helping others.
‘Work diligently, invest prudently, improve oneself, and live happily.’ These 16 characters are a mutual encouragement for everyone.
