Bitcoin has long been touted as "digital gold," primarily based on its fixed supply of 21 million coins, decentralized characteristics, and anti-inflation design concept.
However, during the recent escalation of global trade tensions, Bitcoin's market performance has put this title to the test.
Bitcoin is still not "digital gold".
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, pointed out that when the Trump administration sparked a trade war leading to market turmoil, gold prices rose against the trend by 11%, while Bitcoin plummeted by over 25%. This significant divergence indicates that the market has not yet truly regarded BTC as a safe-haven asset in traditional finance.
Although Bitcoin's short-term performance has been disappointing, Ju sees greater market opportunities. He believes that the current $1.5 trillion market cap of Bitcoin, compared to gold's $20 trillion market size, precisely proves its enormous growth potential.
On-chain analysts believe that Bitcoin is undergoing a painful transition from "high-risk speculative asset" to "value storage tool," a process that requires more institutional recognition and verification from macro events.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, also agrees with this view, stating that the global economic turmoil caused by Trump's tariff policy since February will also promote the arrival of a monetary easing cycle, which is a significant positive factor for Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of "long-term development."
Bitcoin has currently entered a bear market.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has currently entered a technical bear market, with the deepest correction in this cycle exceeding 30%. Last month, Ju discovered through on-chain data that new liquidity is drying up, and the stock on exchanges continues to rise, indicating that the market may maintain a consolidation or downward trend for the next 6-12 months.
It is particularly noteworthy that during the recent Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks (NASDAQ-100) has been highly similar, which is clearly contradictory to its positioning as "digital gold."
However, Ju also pointed out that Bitcoin's underlying advantages have never changed. Its algorithmically determined scarcity far exceeds that of gold, and its cross-border circulation ability is unmatched by traditional precious metals.
As more countries include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, and with the maturity of second-layer solutions like the Lightning Network, Bitcoin will eventually complete its evolution to "Digital Gold 2.0."
Therefore, short-term volatility actually provides long-term investors with opportunities to position themselves, just as the bear market of 2018 laid the groundwork for the subsequent bull market.
In summary, for ordinary investors, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of "buying on dips + long-term holding." At the same time, following the trend of Bitcoin's four-year halving bull and bear cycle, there is a view that Bitcoin may enter a new round of bull market frenzy 12-18 months after this halving (around the end of 2025).
During this period, investors should focus on on-chain signals such as changes in miner holdings and stablecoin inflows, rather than overinterpreting short-term price fluctuations.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin's journey as "digital gold" is not only a price comparison with benchmark products but also a transition from speculation to value storage. Although Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes still need to be validated, its growth pains as an emerging asset class also reflect that the market's perception is gradually being restructured.
Gold has established its dominant position over thousands of years, while Bitcoin has completed the journey of traditional assets in just fifteen years. Perhaps what we are witnessing in the future is not the collapse of Bitcoin's "digital gold" dream, but the beginning of a grander financial narrative.
Do you think Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold to become the ultimate value storage asset, or will it coexist with gold to form a "new risk-hedging combination," or will it always remain a high-volatility risk asset?