Fidelity Research Report: What Does the Surge in Ancient BTC Circulation Tell Us?
Fidelity's research shows that since April 2024, the circulation of 'ancient' Bitcoin (BTC that has not moved for over ten years) has been increasing at a rate of 566 coins per day, surpassing the daily mining output of approximately 450 coins as of June 8.
Currently, the total amount of these 'ancient' Bitcoins has exceeded 3.4 million coins, accounting for 16% of the total circulation, valued at nearly $360 billion. It is believed that about one-third of these are from Satoshi Nakamoto, with some possibly permanently lost.
Notably, since the 2024 U.S. elections, the circulation of these 'ancient' Bitcoins has decreased significantly, indicating that long-term holders are shifting their assets or taking profits in response to market uncertainty.
Additionally, a report from Glassnode indicates that last week, wallets holding BTC for over 12 months were the primary profit makers, but this group has shifted. Currently, the key profit group consists of holders with less than 12 months and those holding for 6 to 12 months.
Regarding institutional holdings, there are currently 27 publicly traded companies holding over 800,000 BTC. Fidelity predicts that if companies holding over 1,000 BTC continue to hold, by 2035, the circulation of 'ancient' Bitcoin will increase to over 30% of the total supply. This indicates that the behavior of long-term holding and institutional actions are becoming significant trends affecting Bitcoin's ecosystem.
In summary, the increase in the circulation of 'ancient' Bitcoin and the shift in profit groups make long-term holding and market sentiment more complex. Coupled with increased institutional holdings and market uncertainty, the supply structure and price trends of Bitcoin are becoming increasingly intricate, and future price movements warrant close attention.
