Overview

Today, the cryptocurrency market shows characteristics of structural differentiation and simultaneous extreme sell-off recovery. AI has screened 23 key targets from 2,604 tokens, recommending to buy 3 (#HARD, #MOVE, #EOS), and sell 20 (#TRX, #AVAX, #CRV, etc.), recommending a maximum trading profit of +11.07%. Bitcoin is fluctuating at the key level of $83,500, with the aftermath of Trump's tariff policy and SEC regulatory upgrades forming a hedging effect, and market sentiment is at "extreme fear" (fear index 45). Investors need to focus on compliant tracks and anti-inflation narratives while avoiding targets subject to regulatory review and liquidity depletion, strictly controlling positions to cope with market volatility.

👉 Real-time Verification and Risk Control: Data updates every hour; please check the latest on-chain chip distribution at buyx.ink before operating. In extreme market conditions, it is recommended to abandon low liquidity targets and strictly enforce the discipline of "single asset position ≤ 5%."

I. Overall Market Trend: Policy games and technical repairs intertwining

  1. Macroeconomic Policy Dynamics

    • Tariff Policy Aftermath: Trump suspends tariffs on non-China trade partners for 90 days, pushing Bitcoin to briefly rebound to $86,000; however, the 34% retaliatory tariffs between China and the US continue to suppress risk appetite, BTC/USDT premium rate falls to -1.2%.

    • Impact of Regulatory Upgrades: SEC initiates reviews on DeFi protocols such as #CRV and #MKR, MakerDAO's reserve transparency is questioned, with on-chain TVL decreasing by 22% week-over-week, leading to a valuation gap between compliant assets and gray area projects.

  2. Capital Flow and Track Differentiation

    • Institutional Reallocation Direction: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings surpass 528,000 coins, Grayscale's Q2 report shows increased holdings in compliant assets, exchange platform token #BNB is sold off (daily net outflow of $120 million), reflecting a shift of funds towards policy-determined assets.

    • Meme Coin Liquidity Trap: The number of addresses holding #PNUT and #GALA decreased by 45% week-over-week, trading volume/MCAP ratio fell below 0.01, suspected withdrawal of project funds leading to price volatility exceeding 400%.

  3. Key Technical Signals

    • Bitcoin Chip Competition: The 4-hour K-line forms a volatility box between $83,356 and $84,487; if it falls below $81,666, it may trigger $350 million in long liquidations; the MACD indicator is shrinking below the zero line, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

    • Ethereum Ecosystem Under Pressure: ETH/BTC exchange rate hits a new low since 2023, Layer2 protocols #FLR and #GRASS see a 38% loss in TVL due to SEC reviews, Gas fee revenue decreased by 60% week-over-week.

II. Logic Analysis for Recommended Buy Tokens

1. #HARD : Compliance Lending Track's Policy Dividend

  • Regulatory Endorsement: The first cross-chain lending protocol certified by the EU MiCA, integrating "Tariff Hedging Stablecoin Pool", TVL increased by 35% week-over-week, technical formation of a "double bottom" structure, target to repair resistance at $12.

  • Institutional Increase: Collaboration with Standard Chartered Bank for RWA settlement pilot, staking annual yield rises to 18%, large on-chain transfer count increased by 120% week-over-week.

2. #MOVE: Technological Breakthrough of High-Performance Public Chains

  • Ecological Explosion: After the mainnet upgrade of the Move language, TPS exceeds 300,000, collaborating with NVIDIA on AI computing power network, developer activity increased by 28% month-over-month, the technical analysis breaks the "descending wedge" pattern.

  • Valuation Advantage: FDV/TVL ratio falls to historical lows, RSI drops to 25 in the oversold zone, breaking above $2.5 may trigger a 20% increase.

3. #EOS: A counter-cyclical opportunity for ecological reconstruction

  • Strategic Transformation: Core team announces migration to the Sui ecosystem and initiation of the "Tariff Data Oracle" project, with active addresses on-chain increasing by 18% week-over-week, and technical analysis forming a bottom divergence signal.

  • Risk Warning: Need to be cautious of mainnet upgrade delay risks; if ecological commitments are not fulfilled, there may be a risk of re-testing the low.

III. Risk Warning for Suggested Sell Tokens

1. Regulatory Crackdown Type

  • **#crv **: Curve protocol under investigation by SEC due to insufficient reserve transparency, stablecoin pool TVL decreased by 45% week-over-week, and the technical analysis shows a break below the key support of $0.6.

  • **#TRX **: Tron ecosystem did not pass MiCA compliance review, USDT issuance surged but on-chain activity decreased by 35% month-over-month, facing delisting risks on European exchanges.

2. Ecological Decline Type

  • **#AVAX **: Number of active addresses on cross-chain bridge decreased by 52% month-over-month, core developers have migrated to the Sui ecosystem, Gas fee revenue decreased by 65% week-over-week.

  • **#GALA**: Daily active users in the blockchain game dropped below 100,000, and the sales completion rate for the new (Spider-Man) NFT is only 23%, leading to increased token unlocking pressure.

3. Liquidity Trap Type

  • **#PNUT**: AI concept coin has dense trapped positions above $0.19-$0.20, market maker Wintermute exits quotes, over 70% risk of going to zero.

  • **#FLR**: Cross-chain protocol TVL lost 38%, trading volume/MCAP ratio dropped to 0.007, suspected withdrawal of project funds.

IV. Operational Strategy and Risk Control Matrix

  1. Position Allocation

    • Core Position (30%): #HARD (Compliant Lending), #MOVE (Technological Breakthrough), stop loss set at 8%-10%.

    • Flexible Position (20%): #EOS (Ecological Reconstruction), using DCA strategy to build positions in batches, stop loss set at $1.20.

    • Cash Reserve (50%): Holding #USDT and gold-collateralized assets to guard against the risk of Bitcoin re-testing the low of $78,500.

  2. Key Node Response

    • Bitcoin stabilizes at $84,500: Increase position in #MOVE on the right side, leverage ratio ≤ 2x; if it falls below $81,000, trigger market-wide stop loss.

    • US PPI Data Release (20:30): If producer inflation <2.5%, increase position in #HARD; if data exceeds expectations, hedge #CRV exposure.

V. Today's Monitoring Indicators and Risk Events

  • Key Bitcoin Levels: Support at $81,666-$83,356, resistance at $84,487-$88,495.

  • On-chain Data: Monitor #HARD lending rates and #MOVE mainnet upgrade progress.

  • Policy Risk: SEC will release (algorithmic stablecoin regulatory guidelines) at 14:00 EDT, which may trigger sharp fluctuations in assets like #XAUT.

Risk Warning: Breakdown in China-US tariff negotiations, false breakout in Bitcoin technicals, systemic risks in algorithmic stablecoins.