Last night, a tariff exemption policy from Trump attracted widespread market attention. The previously imposed 125% tariff on East University and 10% equivalent tariffs on other countries were suspended, and this positive news quickly propelled the price of Bitcoin upward. Behind this surge is not only the direct impact of policy but also a combination of macro news, market sentiment, and the self-narrative of crypto assets.
The logic behind BTC's rise: from policy to chip data
In the cryptocurrency market, BTC is always the barometer. The market sentiment driven by favorable policies has directly pushed BTC prices higher. However, investors need to view this wave of market movement with calmness. According to chip data analysis, the current key support level for BTC is at $85,000, while the pressure levels above are at $86,600 and $87,700. This means that although short-term bullish sentiment is strong, breaking through these pressure levels will require more capital support.
Meanwhile, BTC's volatility has also influenced the performance of Ethereum and other altcoins. ETH is currently facing a pressure range of $1,650 to $1,700, while SOL's resistance is between $135 and $138. It is important to note that the price fluctuations of these assets are not only influenced by BTC but are also constrained by their respective narrative logic and market liquidity.
Will the market experience a 'Black Monday'?
From the current market sentiment, it is highly unlikely that a 'Black Monday' will occur tomorrow. U.S. stock futures are expected to see some upward movement at the open, with upcoming attention focused on whether tariff negotiations will advance further. Trump's recent operational style seems to lean towards 'exploratory pressure', such as suddenly suspending certain tariffs this Wednesday and easing tariffs on products like phones and computers. This 'tough at first, soft later' strategy has left the market both tense and hopeful.
However, in the long term, the movement of BTC is still profoundly influenced by the macroeconomic environment. The dynamics of the bond market and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are particularly crucial. The recent surge in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds indicates that market concerns about the economic outlook are intensifying. If the economy overheats, the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, which would be negative for BTC; conversely, if the economy falls into recession, safe-haven sentiment will also suppress BTC.
Is there still hope for altcoins?
Although BTC and ETH occupy most of the market's attention, altcoins remain an important choice for ordinary investors. The current issue of insufficient liquidity in the altcoin market is still prominent, mainly for two reasons:
BTC price is high: For ordinary investors, the price of BTC has deterred many, leading them to seek more 'cost-effective' investment targets.
Memories of altcoin surges: Despite altcoins generally dropping 80% over the past few months, many investors still harbor expectations for potential surges. They believe that the current price is already the 'bottom price', and as long as they endure this tough period, they may see returns of 5-10 times in the future.
Of course, this optimistic sentiment also needs to be approached rationally. The recent four-month crash has left many investors deeply trapped, with situations where they are 'not even recognized by their own mothers'. But as an old saying goes: 'Difficulties are only temporary; if you endure, you'll be fine.' Since altcoins have already fallen 80%, instead of being anxious, it might be better to 'lie flat' and accept the status quo. After all, spot investments will not go to zero, and the cyclical nature of the market tells us that opportunities will always come.