4.13 Gui Gu Morning Report (How Retail Investors Can Earn Forever)

Brothers, good morning on the weekend. This morning, BTC briefly broke through $86,000. Currently, the U.S. government has made a "180-degree turn" in its tariff policy.

Yesterday, the U.S. exempted certain products from "reciprocal tariffs," removing so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and chips.

Documents show that the exempted products apply to electronic products entering the U.S. after April 5, and "reciprocal tariffs" already paid can seek refunds.

This measure may alleviate the price increase pressure faced by U.S. consumers to some extent, benefiting companies including Apple and Samsung.

Previously, various assets in the U.S. plummeted, causing public anxiety and a rapid decline in Trump’s approval ratings,

even hardcore supporters like Musk jumped out to oppose him! Therefore, Trump is under pressure and has started to lower tariffs. At the same time, the U.S. is negotiating with different countries to lower tariffs, so there will be various good news in the future. Thus, we judge that the market trend is positive.

If there are no other circumstances, BTC should be able to return to $100,000 in May.

However, there are several black swan events to be cautious about.

Just like Trump's sudden tariff actions that caused a global financial market crash, some negative factors may occur suddenly.

As investors, we must understand that it is not always smooth sailing; there are risks.

(1) The U.S. is negotiating with Iran to cancel its nuclear program. If Iran does not comply, a war could break out with Israel and the U.S. bombing Iran.

This situation could lead to a 10% drop in BTC, with a current probability of 20%.

(2) A sudden sell-off of coins by Mentougou, with a probability of 30%.

If more than $1 billion worth of BTC is sold, the current market may struggle to absorb it, leading to a 5% drop in BTC.

Investing involves risks!