WalletConnect, a cornerstone of Web3 connectivity, is set to launch its governance token, WCT, on major exchanges like Binance, OKX, MEXC, Bitget, and KuCoin on April 15, 2025. With a Binance Launchpool staking pool worth ~$13.94 billion, a premarket price of $0.4, and a community airdrop raising $24.75 million, anticipation is high.

Many airdrop recipients reportedly staked their tokens in November 2024 for 6–12 months, believing transferability was distant, potentially tightening supply.

Here’s a data-driven prediction of WCT’s price at listing and post-listing, blending tokenomics, market dynamics, and real-time sentiment.

Key Data Points

Tokenomics:

Total supply: 1 billion WCT (no planned inflation).

Circulating supply at listing: 186.2 million WCT (18.62%).

Community airdrop: 18.5% (185 million WCT), raising $24.75 million at ~$0.1338 per token.

Binance Launchpool: 40 million WCT (4%), distributed April 11–14, 2025 (10M daily). Allocation: 85% BNB pool (34M), 10% USDC (4M), 5% FDUSD (2M).

Launchpool Staking:

Total staked: ~$13.94B (BNB: $10.9B, FDUSD: $713.3M, USDC: $2.33B).

Airdrop Staking Assumption:

60–80% of airdrop (111–148 million WCT) staked until May–November 2025, reducing tradable supply.

Market Context:

Premarket price: $0.4 (e.g., Whales Market).

Sentiment: Bullish per technical indicators (14 bullish vs. 2 bearish signals as of April 12, 2025).

X posts: Optimistic, with listings fueling excitement, though some cite risks like a Telegram hack.

Effective Supply Adjustment

The airdrop lockup significantly alters supply dynamics:

Airdrop allocation: 185 million WCT at $0.1338, fully unlocked but largely staked.

Locked tokens: Assuming 60–80% staked (111–148 million WCT), only 37–74 million airdrop WCT are tradable.

Effective tradable supply:

Base circulating supply: 186.2 million WCT.

Minus locked airdrop: 186.2M – (111–148M) = 38.2–75.2 million WCT.

This assumes other allocations (e.g., team, ecosystem) are locked or minimal, aligning with the 186.2M figure. A 60–80% supply reduction heightens scarcity.

Price at Listing (April 15, 2025)

The listing price on Binance and other exchanges will reflect hype, scarcity, and Launchpool dynamics.

Drivers

Scarcity from Locked Airdrop:

Tradable supply (38.2–75.2M WCT) is 60–80% below the nominal 186.2M, potentially inflating prices. At $0.4 premarket, the implied market cap is just $15.3–$30.1M, inviting aggressive buying.

Binance Hype:

Launchpool’s $13.94B stake signals massive interest. Past projects (e.g., Notcoin) saw 3x–10x premarket jumps.

Listings on OKX, MEXC, Bitget, and KuCoin amplify visibility.

Launchpool Rewards:

40M WCT are tradable at listing, dominating supply (53–100% of 38.2–75.2M). Staker sales (especially BNB pool’s 34M) pose a risk, but scarcity may absorb pressure.

Sentiment:

Bullish technicals predict $1.77 by April 17 (+30% from an implied $1.36 base).

X posts show excitement, though some flag FUD (e.g., Telegram hack concerns).

Fundamentals:

WalletConnect’s 275M+ connections and 45M users cement its Web3 role, bolstered by $23.5M in funding (January 2025 Series B).

Price Range

Conservative ($1.8–$2.5):

4.5x–6.25x premarket ($0.4), implying $69–$188M market cap (38.2–75.2M supply).

Accounts for staker selling offset by scarcity and moderate hype.

Moderate ($3.0–$4.5):

7.5x–11.25x premarket, implying $115–$338M market cap.

Reflects strong demand, multi-exchange listings, and ~60–80% supply lock. Aligns with bullish sentiment ($4.47 by May 12).

Optimistic ($5.0–$7.0):

12.5x–17.5x premarket, implying $191–$526M market cap.

Assumes FOMO, minimal selling, and a bullish market (e.g., Bitcoin above $100K).

Predicted Range: $2.5–$4.5

A $3.0–$4.0 sweet spot balances Binance-driven hype, a slashed tradable supply, and Web3 credibility. Below $2.5 underestimates scarcity; above $4.5 requires exceptional catalysts (e.g., major dApp integrations).

Price Post-Listing (Days to Weeks After April 15, 2025)

Post-listing, WCT faces volatility from staker sales but benefits from locked supply and fundamentals.

Drivers

Staker Selling:

40M Launchpool WCT (53–100% of tradable supply) could flood the market, especially from BNB stakers. Past tokens saw 20–50% corrections.

Unstaked airdrop tokens (37–74M) add minor pressure, but 111–148M locked tokens limit sellers.

Scarcity Support:

With only 38.2–75.2M WCT tradable, dips may attract buyers betting on long-term scarcity.

Fundamentals:

WalletConnect’s role in DeFi, NFTs, and cross-chain connectivity (300+ chains) draws holders.

Staking rewards (17.5% of supply allocated) incentivize locking.

Market Trends:

A bullish 2025 crypto market could buoy WCT; a bearish one may drag it down.

Technicals forecast $4.47 by May 12 (+229% from $1.36 base), suggesting momentum.

Sentiment:

X posts reflect listing excitement, though eligibility gripes linger.

Adoption news (e.g., new nodes like Consensys) could sustain positivity.

Price Range

Bearish ($1.0–$1.8):

40–60% drop from $2.5–$4.5, implying $38–$135M market cap.

Assumes heavy staker dumps or FUD (e.g., hack concerns). Less likely with locked supply.

Neutral ($1.8–$3.0):

20–33% correction, implying $69–$226M market cap.

Balances selling with scarcity and utility-driven buying. Aligns with $0.1338 airdrop anchor scaled up.

Bullish ($3.5–$5.0):

Holds or exceeds listing, implying $134–$376M market cap.

Requires adoption spikes, minimal selling, or altcoin rally.

Predicted Range: $1.5–$3.0

A $1.8–$2.5 sweet spot reflects a 20–40% correction from $2.5–$4.5, cushioned by 111–148M locked WCT and Web3 relevance. Below $1.5 needs severe sell-offs; above $3.0 requires sustained hype.

Risks and Considerations

Volatility: New listings can swing wildly (e.g., $1–$10 intraday).

Staker Behavior: If BNB stakers (34M WCT) hold, upside grows; if they dump, corrections deepen.

Market Context: Altcoin performance hinges on Bitcoin and Ethereum trends.

Unknowns: Exact staking percentages and other allocation lockups are unconfirmed. If fewer than 60% of airdrop tokens are locked, supply rises, capping prices.

Conclusion

WCT’s listing on April 15, 2025, is poised for a strong debut, with a $2.5–$4.5 range driven by a 60–80% supply lock (111–148M WCT staked) and Binance’s $13.94B Launchpool. Post-listing, expect volatility but stabilization at $1.5–$3.0, supported by scarcity and WalletConnect’s Web3 dominance. Investors should watch staker moves, adoption news, and crypto market trends. While bullish sentiment dominates, risks like selling pressure or unresolved FUD warrant caution. WalletConnect’s robust ecosystem makes WCT a compelling watch in 2025.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile; conduct your own research before investing.