#BTC走势分析 large pancake is facing short-term resistance at 83500-86000. If it fails to break through, it may test the support zone of 78000-79000 USD. In the long term, macroeconomic easing and cyclical models still support bullish expectations.
However, given the current situation, there are considerable policy and liquidity risks. Friends trading contracts need to combine technical signals, on-chain data, and macro events to dynamically adjust their strategies.
1. Support Levels
78000-79000 USD
The technical analysis shows that 78500 is a recent dividing line of strength and weakness. If it is breached, it will trigger a retracement down to the 75000 weekly support zone.
On-chain data indicates that approximately 40,000 BTC's cost basis is concentrated around 79000, forming strong support.
Extreme support at 73000-75000
If a black swan event (such as a macro policy shock or liquidity crisis) causes a drop below 78000, it will trigger large-scale liquidations, targeting the 73000-75000 range.
2. Resistance Levels
Short-term resistance at 83500-86000
- At 83500, there is a holding pressure of 48,500 BTC. After breaking through, it needs to stabilize above 83800 to open up the rebound space, targeting the 86,000 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level.
- If the daily close breaks above 86000 and is accompanied by a MACD golden cross, it may initiate a trend reversal, targeting an upward move towards 90,000 USD.
Short-term bearish oscillation
BTC's current price is 83500, with an intraday fluctuation range of 8.2-8.36. It has failed to break the critical resistance level of 8.6, and the technical analysis shows that the high point continues to decline, forming a descending channel.
The proportion of short positions in the derivatives market has risen to 62%, with liquidation thresholds densely distributed between 78,000-80,000 USD, further suppressing prices.
Potential Rebound Conditions
If the 4-hour K-line stabilizes above 83800 and the MACD turns positive, or if the daily line breaks above 86000 and forms a golden cross.
On-chain data shows that whales are accumulating and the net outflow from exchanges is increasing, which may alleviate selling pressure.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts, progress in the China-US trade agreement, or easing of US tariff policies will boost risk appetite.
Downside Risks
If ETF capital outflow worsens (such as continuous reduction in Grayscale holdings) or if BTC drops below 78000, be cautious of triggering a $930 million options hedging sell-off, which could accelerate price declines.
Operational Suggestions
Short positions should consider shorting lightly if there is a rebound to 82000-83000 and RSI exceeds 65, targeting 78000, with a stop loss at 86000.
Long positions should pursue if it breaks above 86000, targeting 90000, with a stop loss at 83000.
For long-term positioning, reserve 30%-35% of funds to add positions around 75000, keeping the total position ≤50%, and try to lower leverage.
