币姥爷
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April 12, 2025
The trade war is not over yet. Now, the U.S. bond market is having issues, with either the EU or Japan frantically dumping U.S. ten-year treasury bonds, leading to a surge in long-term bond yields. There are voices in the market expressing pessimism about the U.S. If Trump's tariff negotiation strategy earned him an upper hand, then the action of capital markets selling U.S. ten-year treasury bonds is a vote of no confidence, providing a powerful counterattack against Trump's 'recklessness'.
The rise in U.S. ten-year treasury yields will trigger a series of chain reactions, the most direct and uncomfortable for the Trump administration being the increased interest expenses on U.S. government debt, which contradicts the goals of this trade war. Additionally, if long-term bond yields rise, it will attract capital inflow, thereby reducing liquidity in the market, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into recession, while indirectly negatively impacting risk markets, such as the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Therefore, in this context, I predict that the smoke of the trade war will gradually dissipate, but first, we need to save the bond market.
In fact, even if the trade war continues to escalate, the subsequent impact will directly transition to U.S. trade industries, essentially going underwater. However, our country’s re-export trade scale is also quite good, and with some edge-case trading, the actual impact is smaller than many think. Thus, emotionally speaking, the worst moment has passed, and there is a certain probability that a bottoming phase has already occurred. I believe we are now waiting for a corrective phase, followed by a new round of market movements.
Additionally, there is a noteworthy signal recently: cryptocurrencies are finding it increasingly difficult to experience one-sided declines. BABY, in particular, has seen its current price nearly double compared to the off-market price, with several points higher than the opening price. The last launched GUN did drop later, but it actually saw a small rally at the opening. This shows that when the valuation of cryptocurrency projects reaches a relatively 'reasonable' range at launch, the main players will act contrarily. In my view, driving down the valuation of projects will create more opportunities for the secondary market, which can be seen as a small bottoming signal.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
The trade war is not over yet. Now, the U.S. bond market is having issues, with either the EU or Japan frantically dumping U.S. ten-year treasury bonds, leading to a surge in long-term bond yields. There are voices in the market expressing pessimism about the U.S. If Trump's tariff negotiation strategy earned him an upper hand, then the action of capital markets selling U.S. ten-year treasury bonds is a vote of no confidence, providing a powerful counterattack against Trump's 'recklessness'.
The rise in U.S. ten-year treasury yields will trigger a series of chain reactions, the most direct and uncomfortable for the Trump administration being the increased interest expenses on U.S. government debt, which contradicts the goals of this trade war. Additionally, if long-term bond yields rise, it will attract capital inflow, thereby reducing liquidity in the market, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into recession, while indirectly negatively impacting risk markets, such as the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Therefore, in this context, I predict that the smoke of the trade war will gradually dissipate, but first, we need to save the bond market.
In fact, even if the trade war continues to escalate, the subsequent impact will directly transition to U.S. trade industries, essentially going underwater. However, our country’s re-export trade scale is also quite good, and with some edge-case trading, the actual impact is smaller than many think. Thus, emotionally speaking, the worst moment has passed, and there is a certain probability that a bottoming phase has already occurred. I believe we are now waiting for a corrective phase, followed by a new round of market movements.
Additionally, there is a noteworthy signal recently: cryptocurrencies are finding it increasingly difficult to experience one-sided declines. BABY, in particular, has seen its current price nearly double compared to the off-market price, with several points higher than the opening price. The last launched GUN did drop later, but it actually saw a small rally at the opening. This shows that when the valuation of cryptocurrency projects reaches a relatively 'reasonable' range at launch, the main players will act contrarily. In my view, driving down the valuation of projects will create more opportunities for the secondary market, which can be seen as a small bottoming signal.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.