Key Nodes in Long and Short Battle

Should baby go short or long? Let's see what the big model says.

🚩 Long Risk Points:

Unsustainability of Overbought Conditions:

Historical statistics show that after RSI(6) exceeds 90, small-cap tokens have a 90% probability of retracing over 30% within 24 hours.

The deviation of MA(7) from the current price reaches 42%, indicating enormous mean-reversion pressure.

Liquidity Trap:

The buy ratio plummeted from 69% to 38%, indicating rapid capital withdrawal.

The current price is close to the 24-hour high of $0.16754, but the sell orders are three times the buy orders (Image 6).

🚩 Short Opportunity Points:

Technical Divergence Signals:

New price highs but RSI dropped from 99.26 to 84.18, forming a bearish divergence.

The volume histogram shows rising prices with declining volume (Image 4: Volume bars down).

Weak Market Structure:

The 24-hour low of $0.08155 indicates a lack of long-term support; rebounds after sharp declines lack fundamental support, but extreme price increases are usually accompanied by negative funding rates.

Quantitative Strategy Recommendations:

1. Aggressive Reverse Operation (Short):

Entry Timing:

Go short directly near the current price of $0.1593 (confirm in the overbought area).

Or wait for the price to break below $0.155 (15-minute candlestick entity support).

Position Management:

Leverage ≤ 3 times (high risk of forced liquidation under extreme volatility).

Position ≤ 2% of total funds (e.g., for a 10,000 USDT account, maximum single trade risk ≤ 200 USDT).

Stop-Loss Strategy:

Hard Stop-Loss: $0.1676 (if it breaks the 24-hour high, the trend continues).

Dynamic Stop-Loss: Immediately stop-loss if RSI(6) breaks 90 again.

Take Profit Targets:

First target $0.125 (where MA7 coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement).

Second target $0.085 (dense trading area at previous lows).

2. Conservative Hedge Strategy:

Simultaneously establish:

Short main position (at current price of $0.159).

Long protection position (limit order at $0.082, 48% below the current price).

Risk-Reward Ratio Optimization:

If a sharp decline triggers the long order, it can hedge some losses.

If prices continue to surge, and the long order does not fill, strictly stop-loss on the short position.

Risk Control Red Lines:

No chasing rising prices: The current price has overdrawn liquidity, with a win rate < 10% for chasing long.

No holding losing positions: Price volatility can reach ±30%/hour; losses exceeding 5% must stop-loss.

Operational Summary:

It is recommended to lightly short at the current price of 0.1593, with a stop-loss at 0.1676 and targets at 0.125 → 0.085, with a risk-reward ratio exceeding 5:1. If the position triggers a stop-loss, trading should be paused until RSI falls back to the neutral zone (40-60) for reassessment.