One, why do I see bullish on the daily but firmly bearish on the monthly and weekly? About the bottom of a short bear market
I once said that if a few days ago there was a sharp drop that touched the 3-day KVegas tunnel (70000-73000), we need to discuss whether it is the bottom. But now, with this trend, I can clearly tell everyone that a short-term flat bottom like 74500 that immediately V-rebounds cannot be a long-term accumulation point for the main force. So what can it be? The easiest way is to have a sudden giant spike, so they can support the bottom in deep water and quickly sweep up. There is also another kind, which is a long-term low-volume sideways trend after a downward trend, but in terms of probability, the former is obviously higher. The tariff farce is over, and the market will indeed return to normal, but that does not mean it can start directly. This kind of thinking is like a certain statement from a few days ago: 'The US stock market has fallen so much, BTC hasn’t broken 80000 yet, so it’s hard to break 80000 recently; the previous 76550 was a big bottom.' To be blunt, there are too many retail investors in various large discussion groups in the crypto space, foolish, slow-witted, and greedy.
Two, the dog stock's manipulation methods in a large cycle
If you insist on asking me when the black swan will come, I can only say I’m most optimistic about late April to early May? Why? In fact, the current market is becoming more and more like early July last year, both suddenly starting a strong daily-level rebound under market panic, both less than two months away from liquidity rising, both having the opportunity to create a daily-level double top bait structure. So can we prepare to replicate a similar rhythm? How many people see a drop-break or rise-break and rush in to chase high and look for a start? What’s the final outcome? The tricks of the dog stock have been proven effective time and again, managing to deceive too many people each time. Of course, if I point it out clearly and you believe me, you will never be deceived.
There is another detail; if a daily double top really appears, last year the lowest point retraced to EMA55 (the body did not break MA120), what about this year? Smart you can certainly guess that the most likely scenario is the lowest point retracing to the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, with the body not breaking EMA55.
The above analysis is based on existing evidence to make a reasonable guess, completely without guarantee. But if after more than 20 days from now, you find that the subsequent market behaves as I said, remember to come back and give a thumbs up.
Three, ETH and Altcoin Season
Two words: Q4. Of course, there is a certain factor now, the Pectra upgrade on May 7, which may trigger a strong rebound. However, BTC is not in a major upward trend; it cannot create a significant climate on its own. Additionally, if my model is correct, BTC will start a major upward trend in Q3, and during the first round of weekly increases, they will certainly follow some of it, but it will be disappointing. The second round of weekly increases is when all families bloom and chaos reigns.
