#CPI&JoblessClaimsWatch

When numbers fall, but uncertainty rises

The CPI fell to 2.4% and unemployment claims in the U.S. are increasing. For many, that sounds like "good news" for the market. But is it really?

The upside:

Lower inflation fuels the narrative of Fed rate cuts. That boosts risk assets like Bitcoin, and we are already seeing jumps of +5%.

The downside:

More unemployment claims do not mean growth. While rate cuts may generate short-term excitement, they also reflect a weakened economy that could affect investment sentiment in the medium term.

The critical view:

Markets move on expectations, not realities. A "positive" data point can mask a fragile economy. And cryptocurrencies, while thriving on enthusiasm, suffer in the absence of true strength.

Final thought:

Celebrating a rise without understanding the cause is like cheering for rain, without knowing if it brings crops or a storm.