What Widening U.S. Credit Spreads Mean for Bitcoin: Risk or Opportunity?

See also our YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4bFuT0GmdU

👇1-15) The marginal buyer of Bitcoin may increasingly be U.S. investors concerned about a sharply weakening dollar as global capital continues to exit U.S. financial markets. This dynamic is the flip side of running (and attempting to reverse) a persistent trade deficit—its consequences now becoming evident not just in the declining value of the dollar and rising bond yields but also through stress in the credit markets and continued pressure on U.S. equities.

👇2-15) As we highlighted in yesterday’s report, it remains premature to adopt a bullish stance. With capital flowing out of the U.S., the euro appears to be emerging as a relatively safer haven in the current environment. The 90-day tariff truce was a clear attempt to stabilize spiking U.S. Treasury yields—but with yields now threatening to retest their recent highs, the move seems to have backfired, highlighting the market’s skepticism and the limits of such short-term interventions.

👇3-15) As measured by the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread, credit spreads continue to widen, indicating that recessionary concerns may be seeping deeper into the economy. Historically, this has posed a headwind for Bitcoin. Short-term risks remain elevated, while the longer-term implications can be bullish—especially as Bitcoin has tended to benefit from the monetary easing that typically follows Fed rate cuts. But expecting a bullish impulse is too early.

👇4-15) If we look at the last two instances when the year-over-year change in credit spreads began to widen, as it is now, Bitcoin tended to struggle both in terms of time (with recoveries taking 4–6 months) and price (with further downside before a bottom was reached). This pattern suggests that while a longer-term opportunity may emerge.

👇4-15) Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/what-widening-u-s-credit-spreads-mean-for-bitcoin-risk-or-opportunity
-=====-