Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder Realized Cap Surpasses $18 Billion, Indicating Potential Market Shift
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's long-term holder realized cap (LTH Realized Cap) has exceeded $18 billion for the first time since September 2024, signaling a potential shift in market positioning. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that long-term holders, who maintain their Bitcoin allocation for 155 days or more, have been aggressively accumulating. This behavior previously marked the Bitcoin bottom in the third quarter of 2024. The LTH realized cap measures the cost basis of these investors, and a sharp increase suggests an accumulation phase, often associated with bullish market behavior.
Historically, spikes in the LTH realized cap have preceded bullish rallies. On September 8, 2024, the metric reached $18 billion, followed by Bitcoin achieving 100% returns over the subsequent months. A significant drop in open interest also aligns with the current bottom setup, similar to September 2024. Bitcoin's open interest hit an all-time high of $39 billion in July but decreased by 25% by September. Recently, open interest fell by 28% between December 18 and April 8. The simultaneous rise in LTH Realized Cap and reduction in leverage suggest a potential Bitcoin price bottom. However, open interest has surged by nearly 10% in the past 24 hours, indicating that upcoming price movements could provide clearer directional insights.
Bitcoin has established support at $79,000 after forming a new yearly low at $74,500 between April 7 and April 9. Prices have rallied by nearly 10% over the past three days. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has built credible support at $79,000, with approximately 40,000 BTC accumulated at this level. Additionally, Bitcoin has navigated through the $82,080 cluster, where around 51,000 BTC are concentrated. This accumulation pattern follows Bitcoin's rally past $81,000, influenced by a 2.4% U.S. CPI rate and U.S. President Donald Trump's 90-day tariff pause, fostering cautious optimism for a relief rally.
