#CPI&JoblessClaimsWatch 📉📊 CPI & Jobless Claims – Good News, But for How Long? 🇺🇸

March brought a sigh of relief to economists and markets alike:

✔️ Both overall and core CPI rose just 0.1%, bringing 12-month trend rates down to 2.4% and 2.8%—closer to the Fed’s long-term goal of 2.0%.

✔️ Initial jobless claims remained steady at 223,000, with the four-week average unchanged, indicating strong labor market resilience.

🔍 But here’s the bigger picture…

Although these numbers look positive on the surface, the economic landscape has shifted rapidly post-March due to significant tariff changes—including base tariffs remaining and new 100%+ tariffs on Chinese goods. This will likely impact future CPI, especially in goods pricing.

Even the jobless claims—while more current—reflect a pre-tariff environment. With businesses reassessing costs, the real test lies ahead.

📌 What to watch:

●Will rising goods prices push inflation back up in Q2?

●Will tighter margins start reflecting in higher jobless claims?

●How will the Fed and markets react in this new "post-tariff" world?

👉 For now, March data shows stability—but as we step into Q2, it’s not just about where we are, but where we’re heading.