#CPI&JoblessClaimsWatch – April 2025 Update

Consumer Price Index (CPI):

CPI tracks inflation by measuring average changes in prices of goods and services. It’s a crucial gauge for central banks when setting interest rates.

March 2025 CPI rose 2.4% YoY, down from 2.8% in February – indicating cooling inflation.

Core CPI (excluding food and energy): 2.8% YoY.

Monthly increase: Just 0.1%, helped by falling gasoline prices.

Outlook: Temporary relief, but future inflation pressures may return due to trade tariffs.

Jobless Claims:

These indicate the health of the labor market by tracking new unemployment benefit applications.

Initial Claims (Apr 5): 223,000, up slightly from the previous week.

4-week average: Stable at 223,000.

Continuing Claims: Fell by 43,000 to 1.85 million, showing strength in employment.

Objective Market View:

With inflation softening and labor markets holding steady, the data supports a wait-and-watch approach from the Federal Reserve. Markets may interpret this as a sign of policy stability in the short term. However, tariff-driven inflation risks remain a concern going forward.