From the current market situation, BTC (Bitcoin) has indeed experienced a rebound recently, but whether this indicates a trend reversal requires further observation. Here is a specific analysis:
Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance and Support: Bitcoin is currently testing a key resistance range close to $88,000, which aligns with its 50-day moving average. If it can break through this level, it may pave the way for a retest of its historical high of $108,000. However, if it cannot hold the support level at $85,000, it may trigger a pullback to $76,000.
• Indicator Signals: From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 76, indicating a potential overbought state with some selling pressure. However, the MACD indicator is at 15,460, confirming a bullish momentum. Additionally, moving averages also show a bullish trend, with both the short-term exponential moving average and simple moving average above key support levels.
Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
• Market Sentiment: The Unspent Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator for Bitcoin has rebounded from the 'Anxiety' zone during the downtrend to the 'Belief' zone, and this shift in sentiment typically occurs after macro lows. Additionally, the supply from long-term holders is increasing, indicating that they are reaccumulating Bitcoin at lower price levels, providing support for the market.
• Capital Flow: Currently, the capital flow in the Bitcoin market is quite complex. On one hand, as Bitcoin's price rebounds, some investors may choose to take profits, leading to capital outflow. On the other hand, some long-term investors may take the opportunity of price corrections to buy at lower levels, injecting funds into the market.
Macroeconomic and Policy Factors
• Macroeconomics: Bitcoin has a high correlation with macroeconomic factors, especially with global liquidity and stock markets. Currently, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have increased, which may positively affect risk assets and subsequently drive up Bitcoin prices. However, if unexpected fluctuations occur in the macroeconomic environment, such as rising inflation or escalating geopolitical tensions, it could impact the Bitcoin market.
• Policy Factors: The uncertainty of regulatory policies remains one of the main risks facing the Bitcoin market. Although clear regulatory policies have not yet been introduced, future policy changes could significantly impact the market. If regulatory policies become stricter, it may suppress the market demand for Bitcoin; conversely, if regulatory policies become more friendly, it may provide a more favorable environment for the development of the Bitcoin market.
Historical Cycles and Market Expectations
• Historical Cycles: The Bitcoin market has a distinct four-year cycle characteristic, with its price movements closely related to Bitcoin halving events. Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically experiences significant price increases within 12 to 18 months after halving. The Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 provides a bullish signal for the market, with many investors expecting Bitcoin to continue rising in 2025.
• Market Expectations: According to forecasts from multiple financial institutions, Bitcoin is expected to reach higher price levels by 2025. For example, JPMorgan expects the price of Bitcoin to reach $145,000, while Bloomberg Intelligence expects it to reach $135,000. These expectations provide confidence to the market, but it is also important to note that market predictions involve uncertainty, and the actual price trend may be influenced by various factors.
In summary, the recent rebound of Bitcoin shows a certain market vitality, but whether it can achieve a trend reversal remains uncertain. Investors should comprehensively consider various factors such as technical analysis, market sentiment, macroeconomics, and policy factors when making investment decisions, and closely monitor market dynamics and key signals.