CPI drops to 2.4%! The data is favorable but it drops like a dog?
CPI has returned to 2.4%! This is already the 'normal level' the Federal Reserve idealizes, so interest rates should be lowered, right? The other day it plummeted like the end of the world, yesterday it skyrocketed like a new beginning, and today it almost circuit-breaked back to the end of the world. Those with weak hearts really need to prepare emergency heart-saving pills.
Key point: Trump's tariff rhetoric + market divergence on 'recession expectations' is causing funds to flail around like headless flies. We're just one final circuit-break away; as long as we get another circuit-break, it will be a great opportunity for you to buy the dip. I think we will see it, a circuit-break and the market will be saved immediately.
Bitcoin script: A circuit-break is a signal to buy the dip; the 100k target remains unchanged!
Currently, the liquidation intensity accumulated in the futures market has reached a consensus, with the short liquidation area at 85000 and the long liquidation area at 67000. Because the price is further from 67k and closer to 85k, we can infer that in the large capital futures positions, the leverage of longs is relatively low while shorts are high.
Therefore, I personally still believe that as long as Trump gives some good news, 85k will be the first place to be liquidated.
Is it time for the bulls: 'Merciful Trump, give me some good news!'
To be honest, the pace in the crypto circle is particularly fast. Who knows, it might reach 100k in two months. This round from 100k to 70k also took two months.
Mainstream cryptocurrencies are performing too fragmented:
BTC: Follows the US stock market but is 'resilient' compared to it, rises less and falls less, all relying on news, as soon as the news stops, it corrects.
ETH: Rallies the fastest but also drops back the fastest, still the 'disliked second.'
SOL: As BTC's 'leveraged little brother,' there are some signs of recovery on-chain; long-term can be 2x long, don't miss the bottom range.
Next, besides Trump's uncertain remarks on tariffs, it's the economic GDP data at the end of the month.
The recession expectations that have been hyped for so long are actually not too concerning for those of us who want to see altcoin season.
Recession is not scary; deep recession is scary. A mild recession is actually okay. Because a deep recession will extend the arrival of the easing cycle, thus delaying the altcoin season.
Now everyone thinks there might be a rate cut around June; is this a good thing? Not necessarily.
We need to see what the reason for the rate cut is. If old Powell's wording is poor, and the market interprets it as a rate cut due to a recession, then there will be panic again. So, we still can't be too strategic. Or we can simply stay out and watch the show. The news only plays a catalytic role and does not affect the fundamental market.
So how will it move next? I'll be direct, a new low is already a foregone conclusion.
But how do we reach new lows? Where is the new low? Will Bitcoin and Ethereum decouple? What will happen to the fate of altcoins?
I can only say I have a sense of it, everyone should wait for the updates. A new low for Bitcoin is highly probable, but how will it drop and to what level? We'll see as we go, staying vigilant is more important than being blindly optimistic.
Finally, the market fluctuations are complex; if you don't understand the market, don't jump in. Popping champagne in the middle of the game is a big taboo—don't you understand this?
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